Ryan McNeil
With just days to go until The Oscars, and having seen all but one of the films nominated in the big eight categories, I figured it was about time to stick my neck out and make my predictions. Now again, I must remind everyone, that I’ve won as many Oscar pools as I have World Series games…so take my predictions with a grain or two of salt.
So here we go. Two categories a day from here ’til Oscar Night, beginning with Original & Adapted screenplay. My thoughts on each category after the jump.
AWAY FROM HER, while a beautiful, and touchingly sad story is sadly overmatched by the other four films. While I’m always in favour of Canadians having their day in the sun, I foresee nothing but cloudy skies for Sarah Polley this time around. THERE WILL BE BLOOD is an intriguing choice, but if academy voters are going to reward a dark and violent story this year, I doubt that this will be the one. Watch for another stunned expression on the face of P.T. Anderson.
Which brings us to NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN. It stands a chance to take the prize, though for my money I have a hard time distinguishing where Cormac McCarthy’s work ended and The Coen Brothers’ work begins. Is that a sign of a truly great adaptation? Or a sign of stellar source material?
So for me the final bracket comes down to ATONEMENT and THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY. ATONEMENT once seemed like the heavy hitter in this category, with accents and undertones that The Academy usually loves. However the fuss over it has cooled, and I can’t help but wonder if its screenplay chances are a victim of the frost. With that in mind, I see this as the category where DIVING BELL will get its due. It’s the category that loves an edgier story, and is also one of the spots where films snubbed in other categories (like…say…Best Picture and Best Foreign Film) get their due.
The Hatter’s Call… A possible win for ATONEMENT, but a likely flight for THE BUTTERFLY.
Where the adapted screenplay feels like a heavyweight fight, the original screenplay contenders look more like a a bunch of has-been’s and never-were’s fighting fourth or fifth down on the under card. They aren’t bad, they just don’t stack up as impressively as a group. THE SAVAGES was a good movie, but I’m still left scratching my head at how it took the fifth nomination. MICHAEL CLAYTON is another one that I find a tad surprising, since it strikes me as an interesting character study…but not a truly amazing story.
On the other hand, LARS AND THE REAL GIRL is a script that really got me. It’s funny, endearing, and hopeful. It’s the sort of story Academy voters usually get behind. Unfortunately, with this as the film’s only nomination, I get the sneaking suspicion that they voters weren’t behind it that much. A shame really – I blame it on poor marketing.
That leaves JUNO and RATATOUILLE to fight it out in the final round. I’ll admit that I fell hard for Diablo Cody’s work after seeing JUNO, so admittedly I’m a tad biased. However, JUNO just has that heart and soul many of this category’s winners have had lately (Think SIDEWAYS, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE, ALMOST FAMOUS, ETERNAL SUNSHINE). That same heart and soul is what makes RATATOUILLE work, although this love letter to creativity seems a tad thinner than JUNO – which many have suggested is on the thin side itself.
The Hatter’s Call… An award-winning batch of RATATOUILLE is a possibility, but I think this award is JUNO’s to lose.