Villains (Oscar Predictions – Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress)

More Oscar predictions today, this being the easiest one to outline in a country mile. Truthfully, I’m writing in the middle of some family issues, so a post like this is the best thing short of a trailer or “Today, I Feel Like This” at the moment.

Take a look beyond the jump for my calls in the race for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress.

To the ladies first, and we begin with Maggie Gyllenhaal in CRAZY HEART. While it’s nice to see Maggie finally recognized after a decade or so of solid outings, her inclusion here feels like momentum of the film’s success. She’s the last one in, and thus the first one out. Penelope Cruz can likewise be crossed off quickly. For starters she just won this category last year, and back-to-back wins in such a category are rare. Further, NINE as a film was largely shrugged off this award season, so her work in it is not likely to catch much voter attention.

Then we have the ladies from UP IN THE AIR – Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick. The sad fact here is that by both being nominated, they’ll likely cancel each other out (call it the ALMOST FAMOUS effect)…which is quite sad given that they’re both amazing in this movie! Were they not in competition with one another, I’d be calling on one of them to steal, but unfortunately that seems unlikely.

Indeed it seems like for many a month, Mo’Nique has all but been handed this award – and rightfully so. Her dark and sorrowful turn in PRECIOUS is the performance of a lifetime, and while we’re unlikely to see anything like it out of her again, it quite simply is too powerful to be ignored.

The Hatter’s Pick… Mo’Nique in a walk.

Next to the men, where there is equally little mystery in store.

Stanley Tucci is unfortunately the first scratch. Tucci is (quite rightly) being rewarded for a stellar year at the movies, though some might argue he was honoured for the lesser of his two projects. Like NINE, THE LOVELY BONES was sadly d.o.a. when it hit theatres, so honouring even the best part of it seems unlikely.

Next is Christopher Plummer who puzzlingly has never been nominated before!! His role in THE LAST STATION has a lot of charm, but sadly was far too underexposed. The nomination is his award this time out. Then there’s Matt Damon. His nomination isn’t exactly undeserving, but it feels slightly apathetic. Almost as if they just ran out of supporting roles to nominate. It’s good to see him back at the party after twelve years, but it takes more than a passable South African accent.

Woody Harrelson is an interesting case, and another actor who’s had quite the comeback year. His part in THE MESSENGER didn’t feel all that supporting…and truthfully his nomination was a tad surprising. It wasn’t my favorite performance of the category, but the guy is so well liked that if anyone’s gonna steal the award, it’ll be him.

But like Mo’Nique, this award seems to have been decided many moons ago, when a character named Col. Hans Lander first sat down for a glass of milk. His role is the stuff of legend, and one of the greatest details of one of the year’s greatest movies. Hopefully his nomination here will keep him in North American films for many years to come.

The Hatter’s Pick… Waltz is easily la creme de la creme.

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Supporting races.