Ryan McNeil
And so it begins. While I have read many a predictive post over the last few weeks, I have decided to save my forecasting for this final week. It has given me a chance to see just about every nominee in these major categories and form my own opinions. likewise it has allowed me to sit back and gauge how the campaigns have played out.
Thus let Hatter’s powers of prognostication commence. From here until Oscar Night the posts covering the eight major categories shall be covered her on The dark of the Matinee, beginning with original and adapted screenplay after the jump.
Four of the five noiminees for Best Adapted Screenplay are up for Best Picture, therefore, as unfortunate as it is we might as well scratch IN THE LOOP right away as the odd man out. Believe me, it’s with a very heavy heart that I discount that film off the top. Things aren’t a whole lot better for DISTRICT 9, which while clever might not have connected with enough academy members to give its anti-Apartheid message a true chance.
There’s a small chance that the Saphire’s raw intensity of PRECIOUS could score an upset, though it’s difficult to gauge if there are many members of Oprah’s Book Club that get Oscar ballots. And while I count myself as a huge fan of Nick Hornby, and dearly loved his script for AN EDUCATION, I feel that his film failed to reach any wider than the core audience that helped nominate it.
That leaves UP IN THE AIR, an important and clever film in the grand scheme of things, with this category being the best chance to reward it. This is the sort of category that rewards films with this sort of charm, look for it to happen again on Sunday.
The Hatter’s Pick…Unless a lot of Nick Hornby fans have a vote, look for Jason Reitman and Sheldon turner to share an awkward moment as they collect their prize for UP IN THE AIR.
In the category of Best Original Screenplay, we are given somewhat of a rarity in this year’s Oscar Race – a truly undecided race.
First though we must that the Cohen Brothers and Pete Docter for showing up. They gave us some truly memorable and charming stories with A SERIOUS MAN and UP respectively, but in this category of heavy hitters, they are just completely overmatched.
If THE MESSENGER were fifteen minutes shorter, I’d say it stands a solid chance of being the dark horse to take home the little gold guy. However that final dive into cliche might be too much for an Oscar voter to overlook. THE MESSENGER was amazingly underexposed this year, so really it’s nominations are going to have to be prize enough.
This brings us to the big showdown…Mark Boal’s HURT LOCKER and Quentin Tarentino’s INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. Quite honestly gang, this is a wickedly hard category to handicap. On the one hand, a win for Boal could be a sign of things to come and a potential Best Picture grab for THE HURT LOCKER. On the other hand, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS is one of the year’s most widely lauded films, and many consider it a promise fulfilled by Quentin Tarentino. QT is in wicked-tough competition against Kathryn Bigelow for directing, so this category – like Jason Reitman in adapted screenplay – might be a way to spread the love around.
The Hatter’s Pick…Quentin gets a bingo.
Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Screenplay races.
I have to agree with you here. I just think it's one of those years for the most part where the winners are rather panned out except for in a handful of categories. Though I do think Tarantino's got best writing down pat (sort of the same treatment Pulp Fiction got – but I think these are two very different cases).
Though I do agree a Boal win could signal a sweep.
QT's gotta win this. But then again, it's the Oscars, who the hell knows. Fingers crossed.
Coolio, Hatter, I've actually just begun writing Oscar chatter posts on the major categories leading up to Sunday. Even if it's just for fun to see how off I'll be in my predictions 🙂
I'm with you & Aiden that I want QT to win for Basterds, I really think it deserves more than THL. I love District 9, too, but you're right, it's probably not gonna win this thing.
This is a tough one. I am not sure who I am voting for. Also haven't seen all of them. I think at the moment I would go for The Hurt Locker or Up but I am really looking forward to seeing A Serious Man soon!
@ Univarn… I think the fact that many of the winners are somewhat pre-determined is what has me slightly less excited this year.
@ Aiden… It's the category he won before, so he's got history on his side, right?
@ RTM… I'll have to check out your posts. All apologies for not being a better reader this week.
Part of me would love to see something more unexpected come in and upset, and this is often the category where it happens.
@ Vanessa… Hah – given how split people are on what they think of A SERIOUS MAN, I can't wait to read your post on it.
Oh no need to apologize, Hatter, I've actually haven't published my Oscar chatter posts, I've just started writing 'em 🙂
@ Vanessa – I just heard two different colleagues shared two completely different views on A Serious Man, one loved it, the other couldn't stay awake for it. So yeah, I'm curious to hear your thoughts.