Ryan McNeil
And then there was one…the big one as it were. Capping off this week of predictive Oscar posts, we finally arrive at the big cheese…the grand poobah…king turd of poop mountain (too far?). Take a look after the jump for my call on the ten-spot of Best Picture Nominees.
As you likely know by now, this year Oscar widened out the field to ten nominees. The prevailing wisdom, is that adding five more spots would make the class a tad more mainstream, and curb the tide of smaller, more independent nominees that have dominated the decade. Y’know, those films that “nobody saw” (except everybody reading this space, and every space like it).
Being that its the only category with ten nominees, we can begin by eliminating five for various reasons. THE BLIND SIDE is just too fluffy, too slight. It has an audience, but not enough weight to take a place next to movies like TERMS OF ENDEARMENT. A SERIOUS MAN and AN EDUCATION, while both fantastic, shouldn’t work too hard on their acceptance speeches. Either film would have a tough fight in a five nominee race, and with a ten picture field, both are just too overmatched. DISTRICT 9 is an interesting contender. While it doesn’t nearly have the support to parlay its nomination into a win, what it does have, is the possibility of stealing some sci-fi support from AVATAR.
That brings us to the spoilers. These films don’t seem to be front runners, but given the weighted-ballot system, they might have enough second and third choice love to steal an eventual win. First is PRECIOUS, which might not have the sort of widespread support as some better-odds nominees, but I learned long ago not to underestimate the power of an Oprah-backed project. Next is UP, which seems to be d.o.a given that it’s an animated feature, but I have to wonder…who really hated UP enough to completely sink its chances? The next spoiler seemed to be a front-runner when awards season got kicked off back in early December, and that’s UP IN THE AIR. It’s smart, it’s mature, and it’s timely. It also seems to have piqued far too early (mind-blowing for a film that didn’t go into wide release until Christmas Day). What can I say? When you live by the buzz, you die by the buzz.
The last spoiler is the one that has the potential to do the most amount of damage, and that’s INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. Much of the past five weeks have been about forecasting a two film race, but if there’s a sleeper in the pack with the biggest chance to zip right past the two front-runners, it’s Quentin Tarentino’s yarn of revisionist history. After UP, it’s the film that has the greatest combination of mass appeal, wide exposure, and critical success. Don’t underestimate the possibility that the end of the night could arrive and have the producers of INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS at the mic giving us all their “Bahn-joor-no”
That brings us to the rage in the cage…the hell in the cell…HURT LOCKER in one corner, AVATAR in the other. HURT LOCKER has run the gamut in all the award precursors. Steamrolling through just short of SLUMDOG-like dominance. Few films in recent history have come up winning time and time again, only to be shut out when it counts. But it’s happened before (SAVING PRIVATE RYAN), and it could happen again (BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN). The main reason why it could happen again is a gigantic blue fly in the ointment named AVATAR.
The staggering success – rigged or not – of AVATAR, might just be too big for the film industry to ignore. It brought people out to the theatres in droves and pushed the technical envelope further than any film since THE MATRIX. It seemed destined to be a failure of monumental proportions, but instead gave us a film that is an unforgettable experience. As a story, and as a film, it’s far less complete than THE HURT LOCKER…and while in the past Academy voters haven’t cared to reward a phenomenon bound for the lexicon (RAIDERS OF THE LOST ARK, STAR WARS, E.T.), this time they might take the bait.
The hatter’s Pick…I’m not happy to be saying this, but I believe when the dust settles Jim Cameron will be standing at the mic thanking the academy in Na’vi.
Yeah I wouldn't really even lift my head from my comp (which I will either be ignoring or live tweeting the oscars – may do both at the same time) if I heard Avatar win. At least not in the same flip of shock after I heard Crash win during the year of Brokeback Mountain.
I wouldn't mind hearing Hurt Locker, but perhaps I'm still holding recessive grumpy genes for no Moon love 🙂
I have done this point to death on my own blog but I will say it one last time. Moon is a better movie than District 9 and Fish Tank a better movie than An Education. They both deserve a nomination. Of the films that are nominated only two deserve the win, The Hurt Locker followed by Inglourious Basterds (I have written those words so many times recently soon I won’t remember how to spell Inglorious Bastards). Sadly I agree Avatar will win and Jim will declare himself King of Pandora or Kind of the Universe or some such crap.
I'm sad o say you're probably right about Avatar, but I think Bigalow should get Best Director.
I'd really prefer Inglourious Basterds, but it's just not gonna happen.
@ Univarn… As the saying goes "There's always next year"
@ Number Six… The good thing is that films like MOON and FISH TANK will get a lot of good word of mouth as time goes on…long after we've realized that certain overhyped movies aren't quite that good.
And I actually think my computer has accepted the spelling of those two words as correct now…sad as that sounds.
@ Darren… Don't discount The Basterds just yet, it stands a really good chance of taking Best Pic, especially if by the end AVATAR and LOCKER can't muster up enough second and third vote love.
(BTW – Thanks for reading!)