Boys and Girls (Oscar Predictions – Best Supporting Actress & Supporting Actor)

Sometimes Oscar races can seem like they’re all done-and-dusted well before we get into the last weeks, and this year is no exception. However, sometimes it’s these moments that can set the stage for surprise. Thoughts on the ten scene-stealers up for best supporting coming up.

In the category of “time flies”, it’s been thirteen years since Julia Roberts was last nominated for an Oscar (the year she won for ERIN BROCKOVICH). Her nomination here is something of a coup, since anyone who’s seen AUGUST: OSGAE COUNTY knows that she isn’t a supporting player so much as she is a co-lead. Perhaps she was pushed in this category to get both her and Meryl nominations…or perhaps she was pushed here to give Meryl more of a fighting chance for a win as lead. Regardless, her night is over. Wonder if it’ll take her another 13 years to get back to the dance?

It seems odd that Sally Hawkins is only getting nominated for the first time. The fact that her breakthrough with happy-go lucky didn’t score her a nomination is a travesty in it’s own right. Since then though, she’s done solid-if-unsexy bits in film after film. So the good news now is that she’s been lauded with a nomination, but the bad news is that she’s wickedly overmatched. Hopefully it’s not the last time she walks down Oscar’s red carpet.

For about five minutes, this award looked like it could easily go to June Squibb. An actor who steals scene after scene from under Bruce Dern thanks to her lack of filter and brazen attitude in the face of all comers. She is an absolute joy to watch and does great things in the world Alexander Payne built around her. Unfortunately though, she didn’t make enough of an impression to overtake one of the women below, and was quickly overtaken as the would-be-usurper by the other. In a perfect world, she’d be going home with a statue, but the most we can hope for is that we get a few more pieces of cinematic joy before she’s done with acting.

Jennifer Lawrence is the star that the universe of Supporting Actresses are revolving around. This is not just for her work in AMERICAN HUSTLE, but also for the meteoric rise her career has benefitted from after her first Oscar nomination just three short years ago. Since then, her candour and charm have done nothing but endear her all the more to fans and colleagues alike, which only stokes the love for her performance in this movie. She is very much America’s Sweetheart in ways that no publicist could ever engineer, and at the age of 23 she could well be walking home with her second piece of hardware in as many years. But… Oscar loves to spread the wealth around, and as a group often needs to be immensely impressed to laud talent in back-to-back years. Lawrence might have enough appeal to clear that hurdle, but will she have enough to clear the hurdle that is the category’s fifth competitor?

From the moment the lights went up on the first screenings of 12 YEARS A SLAVE, people were talking about Lupita Nyong’o. This amazing talent that came out of nowhere had successfully stolen scenes from Sarah Paulson, Chiwetel Ejiofor, and Michael Fassbender. She took Solomon Northup’s story and damned near made it her own. She became the beating heart of the film and broke all of ours in the process. As if that wasn’t enough, she was tapped time and again in the run-up to Oscar night and was the embodiment of grace at every turn. She is the woman that so many members of The Academy are pulling for, including her co-nominees. We are witnessing the beginning of an amazing career, and a trophy be just the best welcoming gift she could get.

Ryan’s Pick… Lawrence might strike twice, but Nyong’o seems poised to charm us all with an endearing acceptance speech.

Looking at the boys, there’s a similar sort of pre-destiny to the nominee list.

Bradley Cooper’s nomination for AMERICAN HUSTLE really feels like he caught a wave. In comparison to his castmates, Cooper doesn’t do anything all that special in the film. His work feels especially dialled back when you compare it to his manic energy in last winter’s SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK. But everyone from HUSTLE was jumping into the pool, so Cooper got thrown in too. He’s now a back-to-back nominee – let’s see what he can do with the goodwill.

Next up is Jonah Hill. If THE WOLF OF WALL STREET were able to build up any sort of momentum, I’d suggest that he could be a serious contender in this category for the amount of manic energy he brings to the film. Unfortunately, it’s unsavoury subject matter have turned off too many voters – voters needed to parlay “Oscar nominee” into “Oscar winner”. Don’t with though, I’m sure Jonah will be back making lowbrow comedies in short order.

In a perfect world, Michael Fassbender would be a heavier contender in this category than he is. Besides being the splendid specimen that makes so many swoon, and being so. goddamned. talented, his turn in 12 YEARS A SLAVE is so detestable that I stays with you for a long time after the credits finish rolling. However, along with the films inability to get any sort of foothold outside of script and supporting actress, Fassbender is too far down the depth chart at his own position. Don’t feel too bad for him though, he’ll be nominated again…plus look at him!

Part of me feels like this is the sort of category that is ripe for an upset, and if that comes, then watch for Barkhad Abdi to pull off something special. CAPTAIN PHILLIPS is a movie that is resonating well with Oscar voters, and this might be just the category to give it some love. Much like Lupita, Barkhad’s road to fame is an incredible story – the sort of thing Hollywood loves. The temptation to write a splendid ending to that story might send Barkhad up to the stage to collect on Sunday night, which would be a fitting end to an incredible breakout take.

If you’re the gambling sort though, you should know that the smart money is on Jared Leto and his performance as the transgendered Rayon in DALLAS BUYER’S CLUB. The movie is a an interesting spin on the standard story of a hustler, and Rayon’s part within the story as both the accomplice, but also the reality check makes for the sort of unforgettable role actors dream of (and Oscar loves). However, there’s a knock on Leto that could manifest itself into his destiny getting fulfilled. For months now, there has been blowback over his casting in the face of a true transgendered actor getting the part. On a certain level, it’s possible that blowback manifests itself into Leto getting overlooked, and another actor leapfrogging him to the stage (Hello Mr. Abdi!). However, while Hollywood is progressive – I don’t believe they are progressive enough to wave that particular flag. Remember, this is the group that just seven years ago couldn’t get on-board with BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN.

Ryan’s Pick… Barkhad is circling in the waters, but Leto will complete his run.

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Supporting races.