Scars & Stories (Oscar Predictions – Best Adapted & Original Screenplay)

Doesn’t it seem like nomination morning was a lifetime ago? Well, take heart good friends because despite it being a year of so much waiting and so few certainties, we finally find ourself mere days away from Oscar week!

Through the next few days, I’ll be offering up thoughts on the major nominees – writing, acting, directing, and picture – now that I’ve seen everything. Picking what will win is less about what we like than it is about understanding the mindset of 5000 middle-aged white dudes, but after you watch the process a few times, some patterns do emerge.

So tune in for the next few days if you want help winning your Oscar pool. Today, we begin with the screenplays.

In the Adapted Screenplay category, we begin with writers who should “be honoured just to be nominated” are Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for PHILOMENA. They filled their screenplay with warmth and humour, which made the bitter pill that is Philomena’s story easier to swallow. Like CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, their words are a huge part of what got the film its Best Picture nomination. They can relax come Oscar night, they won’t need to make a speech.

In an ideal world, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, and Richard Linklater would be heavier contenders than they are. BEFORE MIDNIGHT underperformed in the Oscar race; despite being one of the most critically hailed films of the year, this is its sole nomination. Such collective apathy doesn’t usually yield reward outside of the tech categories, and for my money that’s a pity. At-a-glance, it might seem like this script was highly improvised, but that’s not the case. Every one of those long walk-and-talks and every one of those vicious arguments were honed a great deal before being set down on the page. As much as the film struck a nerve for so many, the trio of BEFORE nominees won’t be taking the prize on Sunday.

Billy Ray’s script for CAPTAIN PHILLIPS got a small boost on the road to Oscar night with a WGA win several weeks ago. The screenwriter deserves a great degree of credit for sharpening Richard Phillips’ account of his ship’s hijacking. Forging that first-person account into a script as on-point is this one is ain’t easy, and it plays a big part in the film’s ultimate success. The script’s nomination might still be his only reward, since two nominees in this category – including one of the front-runners – were not eligible for WGA awards.

It seems strange to say this, but if there’s a spoiler in the category, then it’s Terrence Winter’s screenplay for THE WOLF OF WALL STREET. Unafraid to paint its protagonist – the writer of its source material – as a detestable sociopath, WOLF did an amazing job of capturing the brazen attitude of the men who took from the poor and gave to themselves. While it was a film that employed a great deal of improv, it’s structure gave the players a great roadmap to find their way. The biggest thing holding the film back is that those players – and their play – are so damned detestable, and many easily-offended Oscar voters might pass it over out of spite.

The frontrunner then has to be John Ridley and his deeply affecting treatment for 12 YEARS A SLAVE. Not only did he take a long, detailed text and give it a clear voice, but he did so in ways that give so many people in this story such presence. His screenplay is deeply representative of the film’s ultimate effect on those who watch: it takes us on a terrible walk surrounded by truly awful sights…but does so in a way that holds tight to our hand, giving us the strength to keep our head up and our eyes open. Ridley has the chance to become only the second black writer to win an Oscar, and The Academy would be foolish to overlook his contribution.

Ryan’s Pick…

Ridley has his moment, in what will otherwise be a quiet night for 12 YEARS A SLAVE.

The original category is filled with potential front-runners, any of which could conceivably take the prize. Well, almost any…

The first strike from the list goes to Woody Allen and his screenplay for BLUE JASMINE. That Allen was nominated in this category should come as no surprise considering the man has more Oscar nominations than any other writer in history, and has taken the prize for Best Original Screenplay three times already. While worthy, his script for BLUE JASMINE would already be at a disadvantage given that he was just honoured for the far more welcoming BEFORE MIDNIGHT just two years ago. When you combine that with the rekindling of his child abuse allegations from twenty years ago, you can close the book on this nomination. Wouldn’t have mattered though: Woody never shows up for Oscar night.

Once upon a time, Bob Nelson’s script for NEBRASKA might have seemed like a heavy hitter in this category. It’s full of the sort of warmth and humour that endears a script to audiences and voters. The film was widely praised and widely lauded with six nominations, however it now seems primed to wither on the vine and go home empty-handed. That’s the funny thing about the Oscar race: break too late and you can’t catch up…break too early, and you become NEBRASKA.

One script that is playing above its pay grade at the moment is DALLAS BUYERS CLUB. The film came away from nomination morning with a massive amount of momentum thanks to a high amount of nods. Its nomination in this category is a gigantic validation for screenwriter Craig Borten who had nursed the project along for many years before ultimately getting it made. If the movie gets on a bit of a roll come Oscar night, it’s possible that Borten gets swept along for the ride…but there are some obstacles in his way.

One big obstacle is Eric Singer and David O. Russell’s screenplay for AMERICAN HUSTLE. The love across the board for the film cannot be discounted, and this is a category where the film could reap some reward. The muscle that Harvey Weinstein puts into an Oscar campaign cannot be discounted, nor can the deep amount of love the film is getting from Oscar’s acting branch – the biggest voting block of The Academy. With his last three films including HUSTLE, David O. Russell has been on an amazing run. This might be where Oscar voters ultimately reward him.

But wither Spike Jonze?

It seems strange to be calling someone as impish as Spike Jonze an industry veteran, but that’s exactly what he is now. His resume of transcendent commercials and music videos goes back more than twenty years, and even if we fast-forward to his first feature film effort, that still brings us to the table a whopping fifteen years ago. In that time, he has been often imitated but never duplicated. He might seem like he is making his bones by being both kooky and twee, but the bodycount of would-be followers shows just how hard it is to make one’s voice heard in that manner. Ordinarily one to give life to other people’s words, HER is his first turn bringing his own words to life, and its success cannot be undervalued.

Original screenplay is a category where Oscar likes to reward films that make an impression but are “too odd” to take the big prize – think ETERNAL SUNSHINE and LOST IN TRANSLATION. Expect HER to join their ranks.

Ryan’s Pick…

Jonze is up for three awards on Sunday, and this is where he wins. Count on an acceptance speech that is equal parts sweet and awkward.

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Screenplay races.