Ryan McNeil
Every year, when the Oscar nominees get announced, i spend the time in between nomination morning and Oscar night watching all the nominated films in the “big eight” categories. This year, through some weird twist of fate, I had very few films to watch in order to complete the set (two, to be precise). So, while I’ve done my homework this year, it feels like I did it so long ago that coming up with any predictions is a bit of a task!
Regardless, today marks the beginning of my final Oscar thoughts, tackling two major categories a day until Oscar arrives this weekend. Today we begin with screenplay.
As usual, Original Screenplay is a wonderful field.
The only weak link in the category is Jonathan Gatis’ script for FLIGHT. Gatis actually had a long road to walk to get this script filmed. So if the end result is his just desserts, the nomination is the cherry on top. His career is now on an upward trajectory (no pun intended) and his Oscar night is already over.
In an ideal world, Roman Coppola and Wes Anderson would be hoisting a matching set of little gold men on Sunday night. Unfortunately, their glorious and whimsical script for MOONRISE KINGDOM just hasn’t caught any award body’s imagination the same way it did all of ours.It might be a case of peaking too early in the year, but whatever you want to call it, the quirky duo have a low chance at Oscar gold.
Somewhat of an X-Factor in the category is Michael Haneke and his screenplay for AMOUR. The film got a major boost on nomination morning; beyond the presumed nod for best foreign film, it showing up in categories like lead actress, director, picture, and here in original screenplay. A subtle and moving story, it isn’t completely out of the realm of possibilities that the film would sneak in here and steal one with that sort of momentum…but it would be the first foreign film in a decade to do it.
Mark Boal’s script for ZERO DARK THIRTY has to be considered a heavy favorite in the category, especially after its WGA award earlier this week. However, Boal and his simmering ZDT suddenly have a few hurdles to clear that weren’t there before. For starters, the buzz behind ZERO DARK THIRTY has cooled off dramatically since its release at year-end. Besides the lack of love for Kathryn Bigelow’s work on it there’s the entire debate surrounding its depiction of torture. There’s also a question of how “original” it is, since pieces of it come from Boal’s work as a journalist. It might still walk away with a win, but Boal is going to have to face-off against a competitor that wasn’t part of the WGA battle royal.
The competitor’s name is Quentin Tarantino, and his script for DJANGO UNCHAINED has to be considered a heavy contender. It’s been eighteen long years since the last time Quentin walked up on to Oscar’s stage, and between what he put together in DJANGO, and the goodwill he earned with Oscar voters three years back with INGLORIOUS BASTERDS, it might “be time” again. When both DJANGO and ZERO have gone head-to-head for awards, it’s been DJANGO that has come up smiling. Screenplay is an award that allows Oscar voters to award directors that have had a good year (see Alexander Payne and Woody Allen last year), and this might well be Quentin’s turn.
Ryan’s Pick… The D may be silent, but QT takes the W.
Adapted screenplay somehow became the more crowded field.
It seems strange to say this, but David Magee’s screenplay for LIFE OF PI based on the Yann Martel novel is a non-factor in this race. Considering how beloved the novel is by many who have read it, and how well the film showed in the Oscar race, one would think that its rich screenplay might be up for the prize. Unfortunately, the script and all of its theological musings are deeply overmatched.
The dark horse in the category would have to be BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD. It faces massive competition, but its supporters are legion. There aren’t all that many films anymore that can keep their momentum from a Sundance debut all through the year and parlay it into Oscar laurels, and like AMOUR, this film’s showing in categories like director and actress could be a sign of how much it is really loved. It would be a rather large surprise, but an award for Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlan aren’t completely out of the realm of possibilities.
Roger Ebert recently mentioned that he sensed something of a groundswell of support for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK in the final run-up to Oscar. I’m not entirely sure what sort of instrumentation he’s using to collect his data, but the man is further in-the-know than I am for sure. Let’s assume for a moment he’s right, this category could not only be a chance to recognize a writer-director who’s put together back-to-back winners, but a sign of the way the wind is blowing. I don’t think that David O. Russell is liked quite well enough to pull this off, but he might be able to take advantage of a split between the heavy hitters ahead of him.
Tony Kushner’s script for LINCOLN has been hailed almost from the word “go”. Not only was it able to provide clarity to a dense and detailed chronicle of the sixteenth president, but it achieved a certain measure of greatness by focusing on the final few months of Lincoln’s life. It’s unclear just how much support has been drummed up for Kushner – one of the two writers in the category nominated for their second time – but a win here might be a sign of the sort of night LINCOLN is in for.
That leaves Chris Terrio and his script for ARGO. Ben Affleck’s film has suddenly turned into a freight train during the run-up to Oscar, a push of momentum made all the more curious after the jockeying that came from several titles in the months before the nominations were announced. The groundswell of support is undeniable and right this moment, while it’s unclear how far that groundswell can carry it, very few of its categories are completely out of reach..and adapted screenplay certainly isn’t one of the few.
Ryan’s Pick… I’ve been flipping a coin between Kushner and Terrio. Momentum will decide this, and for my money, momentum is on Terrio’s side. ARGO by a nose.