On the Road to Find Out (Awards Talk pt. 3)

The little date stamp under this headline tells me that it’s been three weeks since my last post about awards season. In truth it feels like two months. When did the holiday season get so draining (I’d wager right around the time I turned thirty three).

I sit here slightly disappointed that The HFPA didn’t act like their usual wacky selves for this year’s Golden Globe nominations. Sure they managed to get every A-Lister with half a chance invited, but that’s every year. At least this time around almost all of them are merited. Then again, there is “Golden Globe Nominee Jonah Hill”. Oh, and I dare anyone to hum me eight bars of any of the ditties nominated for Best Original Song.

Moving beyond the Dick Clark craziness, two more Oscar precursors were unveiled in recent weeks. First was the Broadcast Film Critics Association, who actually have a pretty darned good track record in their short existence of predicting Best Picture.

Then just yesterday, a more telling group had their say – The Producers Guild of America. the reason that this group is telling is because many of these producers also vote on The Oscars.

With all of that in mind, many of the films named were familiar. As I mentioned last time, THE DESCENDANTS and THE ARTIST continue to lead the way with both films getting nominated by both groups. At this point, it would take a monumental collapse to prevent both films from being called out on the morning of The 24th.

After those two front-runners, there appears to be a second trio of potentials that have separated from the pack; Those being THE HELP, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, and WAR HORSE. All three of these films have made the shortlist of four of the preliminaries and seem to have a pretty strong foothold going into the final two (The WGA and DGA, both within the next week).

With these three rounding out the top five contenders, I foresee people begrudgingly giving WAR HORSE a shot, even more people whining about how THE HELP shouldn’t be there, and a lot of people happy MIDNIGHT IN PARIS made the cut – a lot of people not named Halfyard or Brown anyway.

After the top five, there’s a dogfight for the remaining nominations. As you may or may not remember, just how many remaining nominations are up for grabs remains to be seen. If I was a betting man, count on eight. This leaves TREE OF LIFE, HUGO, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, and as likely contenders for however many potential spots are left.

The films that need help in the next week but still stand a chance include MONEYBALL, DRIVE, THE IDES OF MARCH, DRIVE, and – believe it or not – BRIDESMAIDS.

Critics Choice and PGA nominees are listed below. Feel free to tell me how wrong I am in the comment section.

Critics Choice Awards

Best Picture:
”The Artist”
”The Descendants”
”Drive”
“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
”The Help”
”Hugo”
”Midnight in Paris”
”Moneyball”
”The Tree of Life”
”War Horse”

Best Actor:
George Clooney in “The Descendants”
Leonardo DiCaprio in “J Edgar”
Jean Dujardin in “The Artist”
Michael Fassbender in “Shame”
Ryan Gosling in “Drive”
Brad Pitt in “Moneyball”

Best Actress:
Viola Davis in “The Help”
Elizabeth Olsen in “Marth Marcy May Marlene”
Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady”
Tilda Swinton in “We Need to Talk about Kevin”
Charlize Theron in “Young Adult”
Michelle Williams in “My Week with Marilyn”

Best Supporting Actor:
Kenneth Branagh in “My Week with Marilyn”
Albert Brooks in “Drive”
”Nick Nolte in “Warrior”
Patton Oswalt in “Young Adult”
Christopher Plummer in “Beginners”
Andrew Serkis for “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

Best Supporting Actress:
Erenice Bejo in “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain in “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy in “Briesmaids”
”Carey Mulligan in “Shame”
”Octavia Spencer in “The Help”
”Shailene Woodley in “The Descendants”

Best Young Actor or Actress:
Asa Butterfield in “Hugo”
Elle Fanning in “Super 8”
Thomas Horn in “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
Ezra Miller in “We Need to Talk about Kevin”
Saoirse Ronan in “Hanna”
Shailene Woodley in “The Descendants”

Best Acting Ensemble:
”The Artist”
”Bridesmaids”
”The Descendants”
”The Help”
”The Ides of March”

Best Director:
Stephen Daldry for “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist”
Alexander Payne for “The Descendants”
Nicolas Winding Refn for “Drive”
Martin Scorsese for “Hugo”
Steven Spielberg for “War Horse”

Best Original Screenplay:
Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist”
”Will Reiser for “50/50”
Woody Allen for “Midnight in Paris”
Tom McCarthy, Tom McCarthy, and Joe Tiboni for “Win Win”
Diablo Cody for “Young Adult”

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash for “The Descendants”
”Eric Roth” for “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
Tate Taylor for “The Help
John Logan for “Hugo”
Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, and Stan Chervin for “Moneyball”

Producers Guild of America Awards
THE ARTIST
BRIDESMAIDS
THE DESCENDANTS
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
THE HELP
HUGO
THE IDES OF MARCH
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
WAR HORSE