On the Road to Find Out (Awards Talk pt. 2)

Two weeks ago, I talked about the first few markers on the table for this year’s awards’ season. Since then, we have started to get a bit more clarity as three more precursors have come and gone.

The first was the day after that first post, when the National Board of Review announced their list of the year’s top films and named HUGO as top dog. The NBR is usually an interesting shortlist: Only once in the last fifteen years has the eventual Oscar winner for Best Picture not been one of its honourees (A BEAUTIFUL MIND in 2001). They also used to be the first group out of the gate to hand out the hardware, making them somewhat more of trendsetters than trend followers.

However, they also have a knack of including at least one entry that is out of left field and falls off fast as the Awards season goes on (HEREAFTER, BURN AFTER READING, BLOOD DIAMOND). This year they have a few suspects that could never be heard from again, and as much as I loved it, I have to believe that THE IDES OF MARCH is this year’s MESSENGER.

That said, they named HUGO as Best Film – which might actually be good news for the Scorsese film going forward, but doesn’t assure anything.

The next group to name their honourees was the AFI. What I like about what the AFI is how they don’t reward one entry as top dog, and instead keep things to a shortlist for the year. With all of that said, there are two things to be remembered about the AFI: They haven’t been doing their awards as long, and the “A” in AFI disqualifies some eventual Best Pictures (like SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE and THE KING’S SPEECH). Such was the case again this year with THE ARTIST (which, of course, is French).The AFI brought up an interesting oddity in naming BRIDESMAIDS part of the class of 2011, which may not get mentioned again going forward, but was very nice to see honoured as an intelligent comedy.

Finally, yesterday also brought the announcement of the L.A. Film Critics’ Awards, who almost always have to go in a different direction than their New York counterparts. So, to zag where The Yankees zigged, The LAFC named THE DESCENDANTS as best picture of the year.

So, if you’re keeping score at home, these first five precursors tell us that THE DESCENDANTS and THE ARTIST are the early frontrunners, and that the films that have a bit of momentum today include HUGO, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, TREE OF LIFE, WAR HORSE, and (yes, I must admit) DRIVE. Remind yourself though that there is still a lot of road left to walk, and faster than you can say UP IN THE AIR, an early frontrunner can be overtaken.

Going forward, we have a busy week ahead as there are three voting bodies that will announce their nominees in the next few days: The Screen Actors Guild, The Critics Choice Awards, and The Golden Globes. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – do not pay much attention to The Golden Globes. They are awarded by a group that are closer to film fans than they are artists or critics, and have started getting things wrong more often than they get them right. Do check out what they nominate, as they can always be counted on for naming something that will spark a laugh. Conversely, The Screen Actors Guild will tell you a great deal, since many members of SAG likewise cast ballots for The Oscars.

I’ll return with more theories in the new year, but for now, feel free to argue at will.

National Board of Review

Best Film: HUGO
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, HUGO
Best Actor: George Clooney, THE DESCENDANTS
Best Actress: Tilda Swinton, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, BEGINNERS
Best Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley, THE DESCENDANTS
Best Original Screenplay: Will Reiser, 50/50
Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, THE DESCENDANTS
Best Animated Feature: RANGO
Breakthrough Performance: Felicity Jones, LIKE CRAZY
Breakthrough Performance: Rooney Mara, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Debut Director: J.C. Chandor, MARGIN CALL
Best Ensemble: THE HELP
Spotlight Award: Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method, Jane Eyre, Shame, X-Men: First Class)
Best Foreign Language Film: A SEPARATION
Best Documentary: PARADISE LOST 3
Special Achievement in Filmmaking: THE HARRY POTTER FRANCHISE

Top Films
(in alphabetical order)

The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
Tree of Life
War Horse

Los Angeles Critics

BEST PICTURE, Winner: THE DESCENDANTS

BEST DIRECTOR, Winner: Terrence Malick, THE TREE OF LIFE

BEST ACTOR, Winner: Michael Fassbender,

BEST ACTRESS, Winner: Yun Jung-hee, POETRY

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, Winner: Jessica Chastain

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, Winner: Christopher Plummer BEGINNERS

The AFI Top Ten

THE DESCENDANTS
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
THE HELP
J. EDGAR
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
THE TREE OF LIFE
WAR HORSE
BRIDESMAIDS