Since we passed the first two signposts on The Road to Oscar yesterday, I believe the time has finally come to start posting my theories and guesses for what could go down on Hollywood’s big night in February. Many people have already prognosticated – some even have some badass sites dedicated to it – but for me, trying to read the tea leaves any earlier than now is tricky. Just like politics, Oscar is about momentum…and many films have lost their momentum far later than this, when they seemed like a virtual lock.

Some early theories for you to chew on…

  • HARRY POTTER will not get a BP nomination. It’s never been a property that Oscar has been drawn to, and the end of the series isn’t likely to change any minds. The obvious comparison is THE LORD OF THE RINGS, but that was a different animal in that it was one complete vision by one director (and Oscar nominated and rewarded every installment as it went along). Sorry to be a stick in the mud, but on nomination morning, remember I told you so.
  •  DRIVE will also go overlooked, except perhaps for original score and supporting roles. Oscar tends not to reward violent and edgy, so there’s that…it’s also just a smidge too far down the depth chart in what has been a very good year.
  • The indie spot in the BP race remains wide open. This year, there is no LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE…no FULL MONTY…no LOST IN TRANSLATION. There has not been one welterweight distinguish itself in its weight class. So while the Best Feature class from the Indie Spirit Awards gives some clarity, it still doesn’t point to one particular darling. Speaking of which…
  •  I still cannot decide what is in store for THE ARTIST. My TIFF screening garnered a standing ovation. My preview screening last night ended with a round of applause. Both signs point to it being well-recieved and likewise landing a BP nomination. But as deserving as I believe the film to be, I can’t shake the feeling that a silent black & white film faces an uphill climb in 2011. My stance on its chances will have to wait until the guilds.
  • Finally, with two exceptions (WAR HORSE & THE DESCENDANTS), I have to believe I have seen the eventual winner by now. That was the case with last year’s heaviest hitters, and while there are still some nominees to come, I’d put money on titles like DRAGON TATTOO or IRON LADY making that group of seven (or eight…or nine…whatever it happens to be), I think they’ll go down more as contenders in big categories than BP potentials. Having said that I’ve probably seen the BP winner already, I couldn’t begin to guess what it could be.

So that’s where I’m at right now. Below, you’ll find the NY Critics Awards’ winners and the nominees for the Indie Spirit Awards. I’ll have more theories in a week or so as more signposts come up, but for now, feel free to argue at will.

NY Critics

Best Picture: THE ARTIST

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius for THE ARTIST

Best Screenplay: Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin for MONEYBALL

Best Actor: Brad Pitt for MONEYBALL and TREE OF LIFE

Best Actress: Meryl Streep for THE IRON LADY

Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks for DRIVE

Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain for TREE OF LIFE, THE HELP and TAKE SHELTER

Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for TREE OF LIFE

Best First Feature: MARGIN CALL

Best Documentary: CAVE OF FORGOTTEN DREAMS

Best Foreign Language Film: A SEPARATION

Independent Spirit Awards
Best Feature:
50/50
Beginners
Drive
Take Shelter
The Artist
The DescendantsBest Director category:
Mike Mills (Beginners)
Nicholas W Refn ( Drive)
Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)

Robert Altman Award for one film’s director, casting director and ensemble: Margin Call

 

Best Int’l Film:
A Separation
Melancholia
Shame
The Kid With a Bike
Tyrranasaur

Best Male Lead:
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Ryan Gosling (Drive)
Woody Harrelson (Rampart)
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)

Best Female Lead:
Lauren Ambrose (Think of Me)
Rachel Harris (Natural Selection)
Adepero Oduye (Pariah)
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Best Supp Male:
Albert Brooks (Drive)
John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
John C. Reilly (Cedar Rapids)
Corey SToll (Midnight in Paris)

Best Supp. Female:
Jessica Chastain (Take Shelter)
Angelica Huston (50/50)
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Harmony Santana (Gun Hll Road)
Shaileen Woodley (The Descendants)

Best Doc:
An African Selection
Bill Cunningham New York
The Interrupters
The Redemption of General Butt Naked,
We Were Here

Best Screenplay:
Joseph Cedar (FootNote)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Tom McCarthy (Win Win))
Mike Mills (Beginners)
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash (The Descendants)

Best 1st Screenplay
Mike Cahill & Brit Marling (Another Earth)
J.C. Chandor (Margin Call)
Patrick DeWitt (terri)
Phil Johnston (Cedar Rapids)
Will Reiser (50/50)

Best Cinematography:
Joel Hodge (Bellflower)
Benjamin Kuh-Sulk (The Off Hours)
Darius Kond-Jee (Midnight in Paris)
Gui-omme Shiffman (The Artist)
Jeffrey Waldron (The Dynamiter)

John Cassavetes Award (films made for under $500,000):
Bellflower
Circumstance,
Hello Lonesome
Pariah
The Dynamiter

Best First Feature noms:
Another Earth
In The Family
Margin Call
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Natural Selection

 

22 Replies to “On the Road to Find Out (Awards Talk pt. 1)”

  1. I really don’t bother thinking about this sort of stuff until January. I let the experts deal with it until then. However I would say this has been a pretty insane year for Jessica Chastain. If she doesn’t garner some pretty hefty Oscar talk I’ll be very shocked.

    1. By January a lot more has been figured out (I’m more fascinated by the nominees than who lands the eventual award). Heck, by the time we get to January the Osacr nominees are announced.

      Between now and then, you’ll get a lot more clarity with the NBR, the guilds, the LA Critics, and the Broadcast Critics weighing in.

      The only thing that could work against Chastain is with so many great performances, she splits her support.

      1. In the past the primary reason I don’t think about it until January is because until then all these lists are generally composed of 75% of films I have no legal means of viewing. Though this year is quite a bit different in that a lot of the big Oscar contenders seem to have already been released and the remaining will likely get wide releases. So maybe I’ll start thinking about it around Christmas (when I’ll have money and time to go on a bender and watch them all).

        1. Agreed, and Cliff Martinez has actually released two great scores this year when you factor in CONTAGION. So if anything, he might split himself and miss the nomination (Not to mention the fact that the musical branch has some funky rules anyway)

    1. He got one for THE THIN RED LINE, so it’s certainly a possibility. If there’s one movie I can’t predict what The Academey will think of, it’s THE TREE OF LIFE.

      On paper it seems like it should be up their alley…but hearing about how many people were left so cold by it, I can’t make concrete statements at this time.

  4. I’ll attempt to make assumptions and picks after December. Living in Fresno, we don’t get much – so I’ll hold off till I feel have an affable grasp on things.

    1. But that’s the thing mate – trying to guess these things isn’t about *your* grasp…it’s about the grasp of the people who vote on such things. To that end, we have begun to see the trail signs of where they plan to go.

      1. It’s about seeing through the eyes of voters like Mickey Rooney and Ernest Borgnine. At the end of the day biases do make the game.

      2. I can’t tell you the grasps of the people if I haven’t seen the film. I understand predictions is how *THEY* will think – which is all fine and good. Actually, I guessed a majority of the sections correct last year. I think I was at like 75% .. not so bad.

        Unlike you Ryan … I haven’t seen stuff like The Artist – The Skin I Live In – Shame – Hugo – etc, etc etc.

        Hopefully they come to my area soon.

        1. That’s the thing though – you don’t have to see them. Last year when we got to nomination morning, there were very few surprises. You could easily have guessed 75% of the nominees without seeing even one of the film.

          There are certain patterns to these things dude. And whether you see the films or not, you can make some very sound assumptions about what’s coming down the pipe by watching what happens with certain guilds and critics’ groups.

          Though I *do* hope you get to see all of those films soon, as they are all killer.

  5. I still make predictions (which usually turn out to be right) even without seeing the films. I should become a professional psychic.

    Anyway, I think that THE ARTIST will win Best Picture. I was thinking WAR HORSE for a while, but then I’ve read a few early reviews and everyone’s just thinking it will get lots of nominations, but not necessarily win any. I’m just a little pissed that people keep saying its ‘Oscar bait’ because its about a horse. What does everyone have against horses?!

    I hope that Jessica Chastain gets nominated. Even though I can see her getting overlooked because she’s had so many great supporting performances this year, so it’ll be hard to choose just one, an they might forget about her. Anyway, I hope she gets nominated for THE HELP (I haven’t seen TAKE SHELTER though).

    1. I’m really happy to see Chastain have such a kick-ass year, and you’re right – the only thing that could stand in her way is her support getting scattered over her three major films. (I loved her in TAKE SHELTER the most – will be curious to hear your thoughts).

      Don’t count out WAR HORSE just yet…

      1. Conundrums like this aren’t even necessary. Adjust the Oscar voting so that all of an actor’s performances are composite and voted on as a whole. If Chastain doesn’t manage a nod I’ll be livid.

        1. That’s actually worse. You’ll get people picking and choosing and clouding their decisions.

          “I liked Hiddleston in WAR HORSE, but wasn’t so fussed about MIDNIGHT IN PARIS and THOR”.

          Hell, it’s bad enough that half the time awards are being won less for a performance and more for a body of work (read: Bridges, Dench, Coburn, etc).

  6. Personally, I’m really hoping Beginners sneaks into that “indie spot.” Seems a likely candidate from where I’m standing. Christopher Plummer’s storyline is definitely the sort of talking point the Academy loves, and the film’s cast is pretty fantastic.

  7. Plummer should handily get a nomination – and might even be a front-runner to take home the hardware! For the film itself to land in the BP race, that might be a harder push…

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