Ryan McNeil
And with that, things come into focus.
Last time around, I wondered aloud what the future held for THE WOLF OF WALL STREET and INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS as the two contenders whose release dates were the latest. Well, now that the guilds have weighed in (producers, writers, and directors all within the last 10 days), we get a clearer idea of what the future holds for these two films. Specifically, the future seems to be pulling their award chances in opposite directions.
THE WOLF has caught the attention of voters, critics, and audiences – perhaps for the wrong reasons. While there have been stories of Academy-members walking out on screenings (or heckling anyone brave enough to grab a mic and do a Q&A), there’s no doubt that the film is a flash point for discussion. So when you take that and couple it with a DGA Award nomination for Scorsese, you see a film that is just coming to a boil in the minds of would-be voters.
LLEWYN on the other hand is headed south like a duck in winter. A film that many believe deserves a better fate – and one that is campaigning as hard as any other film – has failed to latch on with many of the final precursory voting groups. With no love from the writers guild, producers guild, or directors guild, its chances to make much Oscar noise are all but snuffed out. When you pile all of this on its exclusion from the Best Song category (for “Please Mr. Kennedy”), what you see is a collective shrug at a film that many have found very cold and isolating – while at times visually tender.
As for the films that gained the most ground over the last leg, the distinction has to go to DALLAS BUYERS CLUB and CAPTAIN PHILLIPS. While both of them seemed to be “an Oscar film” from the get-go, neither seemed to upper tier. That is to say that if we were in a year where there were five Best Picture nominees, that both of these films seemed like they’d miss the cut. Now however, both films look like they will handily score a Best Picture nomination, and might have made the jump if it were a year of five.
The most interesting detail? For the second year in a row, we have arrived at the week of the nominations with no clear slam-dunk front-runner.
Some other observations:
- One contender I’m still yet to lay eyes on is AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY. Going by the tea leaves in my cup, I’d put its chances at a Best Picture nomination pretty low. Without a PGA nomination, and with DALLAS and PHILLIPS surging, it might be on the outside looking in.
- That said, if this is another year of 9 nominees, I’m wicked-curious what will take that final slot. Factoring in the uncertainty surrounding LLEWYN, and the mild ambivalence towards AUGUST, I see it as five films fighting for one space – with SAVING MR. BANKS, BLUE JASMINE, and BEFORE MIDNIGHT filling out the dance card.
- With the DGA nominees dropping yesterday, an Oscar-watcher could be forgiven if they got a funny feeling. Last year, as you might recall, there was a real divide between the DGA nominees and the eventual Oscar nominees for Best Director with only Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee represented in both. While there’s little chance that the five films represented in the DGA race don’t carry over, one has to wonder about the fat of the five directors nominated. In the past, there has sometimes been one left in the cold…but last year’s oddity of a three-player-trade has to give one pause when it comes to Greengrass at least, and perhaps even Scorsese.
- Finally, I can;t help but wonder if we’re looking at another year with a slight BP nominee. Y’know what a mean? An EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE…a BLIND SIDE… Does that bode well for SAVING MR. BANKS?
So the way things shake down, here’s my final thoughts on the Best Picture race going into next week.
The Favorites: 12 YEARS A SLAVE, GRAVITY, AMERICAN HUSTLE, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
The Likelys: CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB, HER, NEBRASKA
Fighting for The Last Spot: AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY, BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BLUE JASMINE, INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS, SAVING MR. BANKS
There we have it gang – one week to go with a lot of questions still to be answered. Nomination ballots are due today. Any guesses as to what might shake down next Thursday?
Full WGA, PGA, and DGA nominations listed below.
WRITERS GUILD AWARD NOMINEES
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
Her, Spike Jonze
Nebraska, Bob Nelson
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
August: Osage County, Tracy Letts
Before Midnight, Richard Linklateer & Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawk
Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
Lone Survivor, Peter Berg
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter
PRODUCERS GUILD AWARD NOMINEES
12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
BLUE JASMINE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
GRAVITY
HER
NEBRASKA
SAVING MR. BANKS
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
DIRECTORS GUILD AWARD NOMINEES
12 YEARS A SLAVE, Steve McQueen
AMERICAN HUSTLE, David O. Russell
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, Paul Greengrass
GRAVITY, Alfonso Cuarón
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, Martin Scorsese
I think Saving Mr Banks is likely to slip into the running. It’s a family friendly, feel-good industry film which voters could have easily watched over the Christmas break with their families. GRAVITY and 12 YEARS are easily the favourites – even if HUSTLE gets multiple nominations I can’t see it winning in any of the big categories – costume maybe?
AUGUST OSAGE may see Meryl getting a nomination, but I can’t see it in the running for picture and I strongly believe it shouldn’t be there for screenplay either.
I’d just like to see NEBRASKA, HER and GRAVITY get some sugar and I think I’ll be mostly happy. Oh and that BROKEN CIRCLE BREAKDOWN can get lost too, although I think it’s likely to be there. I’m cheering for THE HUNT in that category.
There are all sorts of categories I could see HUSTLE taking: original screenplay, even some of the acting awards depending on who makes the cut.
If memory serves, you were more enamoured with BANKS than I was. So my dislike of it/your liking it is probably slanting our opinions. I won’t be surprised if it lands some nominations (Thompson is more-or-less a sure thing).
Now that I’ve seen AUGUST, I can say that it *is* actually the sort of film that Oscar loves – think VIRGINIA WOOLF. Whether or not it makes the dance is another story. It has Harvey Weinstein behind it, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned over the last few years, it’s never to bet against Harvey.
As for BROKEN CIRCLE, it reminds me of my annual wish that Best Foreign get overhauled as a category. Way too many of the best films this year are already out of the running. I mean how amazing a race would it be if the dogfight was WARMEST COLOR, THE PAST, WADJDA, THE WIND RISES, and THE HUNT? Too many of the best foreign films are being left out in the cold.
I wasn’t that thrilled with LLEWYN either. It wasn’t bad, but it struck me as typical Coen Brothers – let’s laugh at the sad sack protagonist who can’t catch a break. It’s still head and shoulders above most films, no doubt, but in a highly-competitive year, it doesn’t strike me as having enough to go the distance, either, so its Big Three guild shutout doesn’t surprise me too much.
What do you think the chances are for HER?
HER seems to be trending well, but I believe that will be the most interesting story next week for Oscar Watchers – how trending holds up this year in relation to years past. Prior to 2012, the past several Oscar races have been pretty well predicted by what the guilds do ahead of time.
Lately though, the cut-off for the guilds has been too close to the cut-off for the Oscars that groups aren’t able to look to their guilds for guidance. So we’ll see how it all shakes down.
As for LLEWYN, you’re right that a lot of The Coens’ usual tropes are there (this would make a perfect double-bill with A SERIOUS MAN). However, to me it seemed to be missing a bit of their usual incredelousness. On first watch I found it a little aloof – certainly more so than most of their recent films.
LLEWYN hasn’t been tracking well so far, so we’ll have to see if the Coen-friendly Academy throws them a bone or two.