Pretty Persuasion – Step Two on The Road to The 86th Oscars

It’s interesting to see the difference a few days make.

Last week, when I posted my first awards season check-in, I mentioned that the jury seemed “out” on THE WOLF OF WALL STREET and INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS. With both films debuting so late, and in the case of the former almost no advanced looks, neither had factored into the early rounds of Oscar precursors. Well, since I last checked in eight days ago, groups like The Broadcast Critics, The AFI, and even those nuts over at The Golden Globes have had their say.

Guess which two films were mentioned at every turn?

It might seem strange to zero in on these two titles, since neither are exactly setting the world on fire at the moment. For me, the big curiosity comes in seeing what might be in-store for two recent winners of the Best Director prize. Would these films make a late charge and find themselves well-represented like TRUE GRIT? Or would they be all-but-forgotten, like SHUTTER ISLAND?

Greater clarity will arrive with the Producers Guild and Directors Guild nominations, but for now the question surrounding these two films have appeared to have been answered: both are in play.

Some other observations:

• Much speculation has begun to surround AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY. The Weinstein Company pushed it back off its originally planned wide release date of Christmas Day. It’s now only opening in New York and Los Angeles on 12/25, with a ramp up to a mid-January wide release. At-a-glance, this might seem like the studio getting gun-shy about a contender getting critically slammed. Alternately, it could be the studio wanting to push a film off a busy weekend, and get it into Oscar voter’s brains as they fill out their ballots in coming weeks. Whatever the reason, don’t bet the farm if you’re betting against Harvey.

• The Golden Globes have star-watchers’ attention with their nominees being announced. While their crop of selections isn’t quite as loony as in years past, it still remains hard to take a group seriously when they consider a movie with funny moments “a comedy”. My brother pointed out something interesting though: how cool would it be if their five “Best Foreign Language Films” were Oscar’s five nominee for Best Foreign Picture (BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR, THE GREAT BEAUTY, THE HUNT, THE PAST, THE WIND RISES). They won’t be, but lordy what a class that would make!

• Last week I mentioned the seemingly locked in Best Actor race. With another week down, it’s beginning to seem like the Best Actress race is likewise nearly set. A front-five of Blanchett, Bullock, Dench, Streep, and Thompson has taken root. There are a few more names circling that could usurp one (or more) of those women – Adele Exarchopoulos or Amy Adams for instance. But if those five were to go on to be the “starting five”, not only would we have a class of five women over forty, but also five women who are all prior Oscar winners.

As for the Best Picture race on the whole, 12 YEARS A SLAVE continues to hold its slight edge as frontrunner. Barring a complete PR catastrophe, it’s difficult to imagine it not getting a nomination at this point. GRAVITY and AMERICAN HUSTLE continue to trend well, especially the latter. HER is picking up a bit of steam as well as it makes its limited screen debut, as has NEBRASKA as it continues to widen out.

In the next two weeks, we should see whether THE WOLF OF WALL STREET and INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS are set to join them at the party, or if their efforts were too little-too late. Likewise, we’ll probably be able to get some clarity on the back four, five, or however many nominees make up the final field.

Here’s a gathering of what’s gone down this week. Feel free to make your guesses in the comments section.

AMERICAN FILM INSTITUTE TOP TEN

12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
FRUITVALE STATION
GRAVITY
HER
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
NEBRASKA
SAVING MR. BANKS
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

BFCA CRITICS CHOICE AWARD NOMINEES

BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford – All Is Lost

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench – Philomena
Brie Larson – Short Term 12
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl – Rush
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Scarlett Johansson – Her
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Asa Butterfield – Ender’s Game
Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue Is the Warmest Color
Liam James – The Way Way Back
Sophie Nelisse – The Book Thief
Tye Sheridan – Mud

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze – Her
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eric Singer and David O. Russell – American Hustle
Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine
Spike Jonze – Her
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis
Bob Nelson – Nebraska

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tracy Letts – August: Osage County
Richard Linklater & Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke – Before Midnight
Billy Ray – Captain Phillips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope – Philomena
John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Emmanuel Lubezki – Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel – Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael – Nebraska
Roger Deakins – Prisoners
Sean Bobbitt – 12 Years a Slave

BEST ART DIRECTION
Andy Nicholson (Production Designer), Rosie Goodwin (Set Decorator) – Gravity
Catherine Martin (Production Designer), Beverley Dunn (Set Decorator) – The Great Gatsby
K.K. Barrett (Production Designer), Gene Serdena (Set Decorator) – Her
Dan Hennah (Production Designer), Ra Vincent (Set Decorator) – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Adam Stockhausen (Production Designer), Alice Baker (Set Decorator) – 12 Years a Slave

BEST EDITING
Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers – American Hustle
Christopher Rouse – Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger – Gravity
Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill – Rush
Joe Walker – 12 Years a Slave
Thelma Schoonmaker – The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Michael Wilkinson – American Hustle
Catherine Martin – The Great Gatsby
Bob Buck, Lesley Burkes-Harding, Ann Maskrey, Richard Taylor – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Daniel Orlandi – Saving Mr. Banks
Patricia Norris – 12 Years a Slave

BEST MAKEUP
American Hustle
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Rush
12 Years a Slave

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek into Darkness

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

BEST ACTION MOVIE
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Iron Man 3
Lone Survivor
Rush
Star Trek into Darkness

BEST ACTOR IN AN ACTION MOVIE
Henry Cavill – Man of Steel
Robert Downey Jr. – Iron Man 3
Brad Pitt – World War Z
Mark Wahlberg – Lone Survivor

BEST ACTRESS IN AN ACTION MOVIE
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Jennifer Lawrence – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Evangeline Lilly – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Gwyneth Paltrow – Iron Man 3

BEST COMEDY
American Hustle
Enough Said
The Heat
This Is the End
The Way Way Back
The World’s End

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Simon Pegg – The World’s End
Sam Rockwell – The Way Way Back

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Amy Adams – American Hustle
Sandra Bullock – The Heat
Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said
Melissa McCarthy – The Heat

BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE
The Conjuring
Gravity
Star Trek into Darkness
World War Z

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Blue Is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
Wadjda

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
Stories We Tell
Tim’s Vermeer
20 Feet from Stardom

BEST SONG
Atlas – Coldplay – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Happy – Pharrell Williams – Despicable Me 2
Let It Go – Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez – Frozen
Ordinary Love – U2 – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Please Mr. Kennedy – Justin Timberlake/Oscar Isaac/Adam Driver – Inside Llewyn Davis
Young and Beautiful – Lana Del Rey – The Great Gatsby

BEST SCORE
Steven Price – Gravity
Arcade Fire – Her
Thomas Newman – Saving Mr. Banks
Hans Zimmer – 12 Years a Slave