Ryan McNeil
So as the sun rises on this Sunday morning, we’ve finally reached the end of the yellow-brick road for another year. My predictions for picture and director after the jump…
Best director should be something less than a nail biter. I must digress to mention that for all the unpredictability in what films would be nominated, many of the major awards seem to have already been all but sewn up.The basic rule of thumb states that if you don’t earn a best picture nod to go along with your best director nomination, you’re all but certain to be passed over. A pity for Julien Schnabel whose direction of THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY was gorgeous and ingenuitive to say the least.
As for Jason Reitman, I’m happy to see him honoured as one of the year’s top five, and fell deeply in love with his sophomore effort JUNO, but his chances in this category are slim. He’ll likely be happy that he’s already got more Oscar nominations than his dad for directing.Tony Gilroy deserves high praise for his first feature, and for turning what could have been a standard Grisham-like legal movie into a tense and intelligent film for grown-ups. Hopefully, we haven’t heard the last from Mr. Gilroy.
Not long ago, I was beginning to wonder what had become of P.T. Anderson. The once edgy maverick director had been off the grid for five years…perhaps getting a great performance out of Adam Sandler had just crushed his spirit?? He has unquestionably proved otherwise with THERE WILL BE BLOOD, and while I seriously doubt his odds of winning, I’m happy to see him back with a vengeance.
Yes, this award has all but already been handed to The Coen Brothers. The award will honour the masterpiece of their already impressive body of work. Hopefully the award inspires them to get back to what they do best, and leave THE LADYKILLERS and INTOLERABLE CRUELTY behind.
The Hatter’s Pick… The Academy best have a pair of trophies ready for this category: The Coen boys have it locked.
Finally we get to best picture, the top five, the best in class. There isn’t a bad movie in the bunch, but the odds of a five-way-tie are about as remote as Lindsay Lohan getting nominated for best actress next year (though she made for a great showing at the Razzies this year!).
ATONEMENT missed out on a directing nod (in a strange decision really), so it gets counted out right away. It’s a truly bizarre end for a movie that was such a heavy hitter this awards season. I can’t quite say when its fortunes turned, but I sure didn’t see it falling this far from grace. If it does indeed get passed over, that will make four years in a row that the once mighty predictor, The Golden Globes, has been wrong.
MICHAEL CLAYTON was a slight surprise for this category, and all involved will have to be happy with the movie making it to this lofty heights. After all, on paper and in previews, I’m sure few saw this sort of acclaim coming. It’s an encouraging sign for intelligent movies starring big names, hopefully there are more projects like this in the works.
If this was any other year, I’d be heralding THERE WILL BE BLOOD to win. But if we are going to see a dreary, violent epic take best picture this year, it won’t be this movie. A shame really, since it did just about everything right. But bad timing can kill your chances in a heartbeat…just as SAVING PRIVATE RYAN and THE THIN RED LINE.
So after everything, it sounds like I’m ready to join the masses and call on NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN to win right? Not so fast. There have been many occasions where The Academy seems poised to award a serious or violent film its highest honour, and then chicken out at the last moment. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I give you as evidence TRAFFIC, SAVING PRIVATE RYAN, BORN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY, PULP FICTION, and GOODFELLAS. So, in this light, isn’t it possible that when that last envelope is opened, that you just might hear the presenter say “JUNO”???
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying it will happen for certain…I’m just saying that if it does, remember that it comes from that same wacky collective that called out CRASH two years back.
The Hatter’s Pick… NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN should easily cap it’s amazing run with the top prize tonight.