Today the Oscar predictions continue as we look at the bit players (or mostly bit players if we’re ignoring TRUE GRIT). Those boozers, bawlers and brawlers that made the movies they were in that much more compelling. Come along beyond the jump for a breakdown of who might win for Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor.

It pains me deeply to say that Jacki Weaver will have the night off. While her part in ANIMAL KINGDOM is a big piece of what makes the movie work, and a truly fascinating bit of acting, the flick is just far too underexposed to build any sort of true contention. Pity.

Amy Adams can likewise forget about fretting over who she has to thank, since her contribution in THE FIGHTER was not only overshadowed…but overshadowed within this very category. Adams continues to come back to good roles in good projects, so here’s hoping that this recognition keeps her looking to continue making good decisions.

Helena Bonham-Carter was once an also-ran in this category, but the momentum built for THE KING’S SPEECH just cannot be discounted. She is heavily outmatched by the boys she shares the screen with, but in the past, certain films have just grabbed Oscar’s attention with both hands and refuses to let go until every last award has been shaken loose. This award is usually handed out early, so if Bonham-Carter takes it, you’ll know fast where the night is headed.

Melissa Leo seemingly has this award, and rightfully so. Her acting in THE FIGHTER walks brazenly right up to the line of charicature, but never crosses over. The way she rocks that accent, that look of disapproval, that command over the greek chorus of daughters…and yes, the hair…is the stuff of legend. But – in recent weeks she has been a little less than forthcoming on the campaign circuit. Oscar has been known to get fickle and her refusal to play the game could cost her (though it didn’t hurt Mo’Nique last year).

Such pettiness, and vote-splitting could open the door for Hailee Steinfeld. Oscar voters obviously liked TRUE GRIT a lot, and this might just be one of the few chances to reward it and spread the love around. Likewise, a juvenile actor winning in this category isn’t unheard of (Patty Duke, Tatum O’Neil, and Anna Paquin all took this trophy before their seventeenth birthdays). Should it happen, chalk it up to campaign brilliance. The TRUE GRIT pr folk knew she didn’t stand a chance in the Portman/Benning dogfight. By pushing her in this category, Steinfeld is suddnely very much a contender.

The Hatter’s Pick… Melissa Leo weathers the storm to come out golden.

Like Supporting Actress, the Supporting Actor category also has a pair of guarenteed also-rans.

Mark Ruffalo and Jeremy Renner have little else to do on Sunday but wave to the red carpet onlookers, laugh at Hathaway/Franco’s jokes, and look gracious in defeat. In the case of Renner, back-to-back nominations looks pretty good on him – especially after coming out of relative obscurity.

If you’d asked me in December, I’d have offered that Christian Bale had this category locked, but that’s why they don’t hand out Oscars in December. Since THE FIGHTER’s opening, Bale’s star has come back down to earth a bit. Could it be due to malaise for what many are calling a very pedestrian film? Could it be that the hype piqued too early? Could it be that people are remembering that Mr. Bale can sometimes be difficult to work with?? Whatever the reason, a win for the once-and-future-Batman isn’t the slam dunk it was just eight weeks ago.

Bale’s biggest fight will be holding off Geoffrey Rush in THE KING’S SPEECH. The film has run a tremendous campaign, and at every turn Rush has gained an increasing amount of support. Not that I really believe Rush has done anything extraordinary, in fact he’s really just playing “Geoffrey Rush”, but the man has a lot of momentum on his side. He could ride that momentum all the way to the podium…

…but then there’s John Hawkes.

WINTER’S BONE achieved quite a lot by nabbing its four nominations, as multiple nods for a film this small are still wickedly rare. The film definitely has the exposure, and that exposure could benefit John Hawkes. From all accounts, this is a guy who is well liked, and his part in the film has a stoic violence that sticks with viewers well after the credits have rolled. I’d like to believe that there is a surprise or two in our future, and this is where I think it’ll happen.

Ryan’s Pick… Hawkes pulls a Marica Gay-Harden and makes for the shock of the night.

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress races.