Ryan McNeil
We’re down to the home stretch for Oscar, and now that I’ve seen almost all the major nominees I thought it time to go on record for making my forecasts for the main awards to be handed out on Sunday night. Last year I went 7-for-8 in these categories, which of course means that this year I could easily get trounced.
We’ll have to wait an see. in the meantime, my thoughts on the awards for screenplay are down after the jump.
Let’s begin Best Adapted Screenplay with BENJAMIN BUTTON, which after leading the way in nominations, might find itself going home with precious little hardware. This is one of the categories I’d expect it to lose, as Eric Roth’s adaptation of Fitzgerald’s short story really never worked for me. DOUBT and FROST/NIXON are both adapted from plays, and while each of them serve their movie well giving their actors a chance to shine, neither of them really pushed the envelope as an adaptation. In both cases, the films are still primarily talking heads (the heads talk very well, but they’re still talking heads.
That brings us down to SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE and THE READER. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE has been winning everything in sight, and there aren’t any signs of that trend stopping between now and Sunday. However, if there’s an upset to be had, this may well be the category, and THE READER might well be the screenplay to do it. It’s based on an acclaimed novel, and is constructed in a way that may strongly appeal to the very large British contingent in The Academy.
The Hatter’s Pick… THE READER might give it a run, but this category is SLUMDOG’s to lose.
Original Screenplay is a bit more interesting, given that for me it has honoured a more diverse class of films. WALL-E can pat itself on the back for scoring this nomination, because it sure as heck ain’t winning. Oscar has never honoured an animated film for anything other than their cheery, happy songs – and there’s no reason to think they’re gonna stop now.
HAPPY-GO-LUCKY is an example of The Academy’s love affair with certain artists (call it the Kate Winslet factor). These are actors, directors, and writers who seem to get nominated just for showing up – and Mike Leigh is just such a person. Glad he got nominated, but this script ain’t winning. FROZEN RIVER on the other hand is a fantastic script, a really unexpected story that stays with the audience well after the film is over. It’s a very deserving choice, yet might be too underexposed to take home the gold.
That leaves two very close, and very desrving contenders. The story of MILK became deeply relevent again this fall with California passing Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage in the state. The Academy could use this category as a way to support the film and send a message that they still believe in the legacy of Harvey Milk. If they don’t, I’m guessing they’ll reward the crackling dialogue of IN BRUGES, which is word-for-word the best screenplay of the year. But it’s only every once in a while that The Academy honours a script that isn’t a best pic nominee.
The Hatter’s Pick… MILK. Though if IN BRUGES is chosen, you’ll hear a “woo-hoo” of happiness coming from Casa del Hatter