For a moment or two this week, I thought about doing my annual post about how The Golden Globes are a party thrown by a gaggle of star-obsessed idiots…but looking back through similar posts in years past, I feel like I’ve made that point quite clear. If you really want to know my stance, take a look at this post from January.

The SAG Awards on the other hand are something to be paid attention to. Actors make up the biggest percentage of The Academey, so a pat on the back here is one of the best signs of things to come…far moreso than the AFI & NBR Awards, ditto the Broadcast Critics Awards and all the various critic circles.

With that in mind, this morning’s award nominations provide a bit more clarity.

One point that caught my attention is the continued rise of support for THE FIGHTER. The film has come on strong in recent weeks, and landed four nominations this morning including Best Ensemble. While it must suck to be Mark Whalberg this morning (the only one of the film’s four principle actors left out in the cold), I’d wager that this film has now joined SOCIAL NETWORK and THE KING’S SPEECH as the third lock in the Best Picture category.

This was also a good morning for BLACK SWAN. It too landed a Best Ensemble nomination, and earned some love for Mila Kunis as Best Supporting Actress…though it’s a little sad that spot didn’t go to Barbara Hershey.

Other performances nominated that were a little surprising (though not at all undeserved) include Hilary Swank for CONVICTION, Jeremy Renner in THE TOWN, and John Hawkes in WINTER’S BONE.

As for those left at the kids’ table, things don’t look good for Justin Timberlake or Andrew Garfield going forward (conversely, Jesse Eisenberg might as well send his tux to the cleaners right now). Not sure if it came down to a category confusion or something for Julianne Moore in THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT. I was also left slightly perplexed by the complete lack of love for INCEPTION (at least where ensemble is concerned).

Full nominee list is below the jump…any thoughts on what this means going forward?

Best Ensemble:
BLACK SWAN
THE FIGHTER
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
THE KING’S SPEECH
THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges, TRUE GRIT
Robert Duvall, GET LOW
Jesse Eisenberg, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Colin Firth, THE KING’S SPEECH
James Franco, 127 HOURS

Best Actress:
Annette Benning, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Nicole Kidman, RABBIT HOLE
Lawrence, WINTER’S BONE
Natalie Portman, BLACK SWAN
Hilary Swank, CONVICTION

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, THE FIGHTER
John Hawkes, WINTER’S BONE
Jeremy Renner, THE TOWN
Mark Ruffalo, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Geoffrey Rush, THE KING’S SPEECH

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, THE FIGHTER
Helena Bonham Carter, THE KING’S SPEECH
Mila Kunis, BLACK SWAN
Melissa Leo, THE FIGHTER
Hailee Steinfeld, TRUE GRIT