Trophies (Oscar Predictions – Best Director & Best Picture)

With the end in sight, we finally arrive at one of the most interesting parts of what will shake down at the 86th Oscars – seeing who will take Best Director and Best Picture, and whether that will be a split decision.

Alexander Payne deserves a lot of credit for what he brought to NEBRASKA. He was able to get a film out that had no ambitious story, no pretty faces, and was presented in black & white. He created a comedy with a lot of brains and a lot of heart, as he has become known to do time and again. This is his third directing nomination, and stands to be his third whiff. Don’t cry too hard for him though; he does have a pair of Oscars for screenwriting.

It feels odd to be calling a legend like Martin Scorsese an “also-ran”, but that’s precisely what he is this time around. Like Payne, he deserves a lot of credit, though in Scorsese’s case, it’s for being able to actually deliver a project that seemed to be growing out of his control. There was talk that the runtime was four hours. There was plans to push it into February. Like other past Scorsese projects it seemed to be bigger than its britches and growing out of his control. That he delivered in time for 2013 consideration, and that it got considered is a sign of the man’s tenacity. He’s not done yet, but he won’t be adding to his collection on this night.

Few directors in Hollywood are on a better run that David O. Russell. Just years after his pet projects were being taken away from him, and also the time that he was difficult to work with, Russell has turned into the industry’s golden boy. Three consecutive Best Picture nominees, three consecutive Best Director nominees, and the only director ever to helm his cast to nominations in all four categories two years in a row. You would think that all of this would be leading up to a coronation, but even if his film is up for top honours, there are two names too far ahead of him on the depth chart. It’s only a matter of time before the guy gets his moment on-stage, but it isn’t this year.

Steve McQueen doesn’t deserve an Oscar, he deserves a goddamned medal. When last we saw the visionary Brit, he was standoffishly grumbling his way through press for his film about a sex addict. There was no question too annoying, no questioner he wouldn’t cut down. He was far more interested in creating his art than he was in selling it. He was, in short, a dick. That he was able to rein it in this time around, and become a true ambassador for his creation went a long way in selling the difficult subject matter. His talent was never in dispute, and any other year, I’d be calling him a sure thing. But a funny thing happened on the way to the podium.

That funny thing was Alfonso Cuarón.

When last we saw the Mexican director, he was helming the critically adored CHILDREN OF MEN to its place as one of the best films of its year, and the decade at-large.

That was seven years ago.

Since then he has been in his workshop building some truly wonderful toys, and nursing a project that sometimes seemed like it was never arriving. When it did arrive though – later than expected and with different faces than planned – it floored everybody. Fellow artists were dumbstruck by the technique, critics were wowed by the scale, audiences were thrilled by the ride. All involved were so impressed, that even though 12 YEARS A SLAVE was long a front-runner for Best Picture, it seemed as though Cuarón was always the front-runner for directing. Besides the glorious amount of technical wizardry on display in GRAVITY, his deft hand was able to use that technical wizardry to serve the story, and not the other way around like so many effects-happy directors go. He’s almost a sure thing on Sunday night, which makes the evenings top prize a curiosity by extension.

Ryan’s Pick… McQueen holds an outside shot, but odds are heavily in Cuarón’s favour.

Here’s where things get weird. Best Picture can be broken down into 2 categories – the films that stand every chance of winning, and the films that have no chance at all. The weird part, is that none of the three films that stand a chance have gone on to distance themselves from one another.

Here’s the pack:

CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, DALLAS BUYER’S CLUB, HER, NEBRASKA, PHILOMENA, and THE WOLF OF WALL STREET.

If you have any of these six on you Oscar ballot, you’re leaving points on the table, I promise.

AMERICAN HUSTLE has had a more interesting run than almost any film. Upon its release, it divided audiences and critics; some who thought it was a witty heist film, some who thought it was an unoriginal Scorsese knock-off. Whatever audiences thought, it’s clear that Academy voters flipped for it since it came in as one of the most-nominated films of the year. It’s a film actors love, as evidenced by the previously mentioned four-for-four nominations in all acting categories, and likewise it’s SAG win for Best Ensemble Cast. It hasn’t done enough to distance itself from the pack, but it’s stayed with the leaders like a burr in their saddle. It’s a crowd-pleaser, and could well be the name called at the end of the night…which would only divide its fans and detractors even more.

On paper, 12 YEARS A SLAVE seems like the right choice. It’s riveting, important, intense, handsome, well-executed, and surprisingly unique in that few films have been made about America’s past with slavery. It has wowed every audience daring enough to sit down before it. It has given the world of cinema a true gift in the acting talents of Lupita Nyong’o, and contained some of the most complicated roles for women in an age where they are still in short-supply. From the moment it arrived, it seemed destined to join other such films that pushed things forward by forcing us to look backwards. But then two funny things happened –

First Steve McQueen was unable to get a foothold in the Best Director race, and anytime you have doubt on whether direction and picture will both be rewarded, it’s the latter that suffers. Second problem surfaced last week when an Academy member revealed that many voters were too intimidated to watch the film. They felt like the subject matter would be too brutal…that they wouldn’t make it through it. Such reluctance cannot be ignored, and it might be what brings down a once-formidable nominee.

This opens the door for GRAVITY. It’s ambitious, it’s entertaining, it’s inspiring. It’s everything Oscar wants to reward and what it almost never rewards. It should rack up the hardware in the technical categories, is the front-runner for direction, and could even add score to the tally before the night is through. That already puts it at six, and if the film is in for six…is a seventh such a stretch? Remember that Best Picture nominees are voted on with a ranked ballot. While 12 YEARS A SLAVE might not make some voter’s ballots, and AMERICAN HUSTLE could drop down to many voters’ lower five, it’s reasonable that GRAVITY wouldn’t be much lower than third on the lion’s share of ballots…and that might just be all the window the film needs to become the first sci-fi Best Picture Winner ever.

Ryan’s Pick… GRAVITY by a hair.

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Directing and Best Picture races.