Gimme the Prize (Oscar Predictions – Best Director & Best Picture)

Terrence Malick’s nomination is somewhat surprising in that THE TREE OF LIFE is such a divisive film – for every person that saw it as moving and thought-provoking, it seems as though there was at least one that saw it as tedious and meandering. Malick’s second nomination is an affirmation of the film’s achievement. Do you remember those years where a director would be nominated even though their film wasn’t up for Best Picture – Paul Greengrass, Spike Jonze, David Lynch? Something tells me that would be Malick’s place this year if there were only five nominees. Sadly, he stands no chance of taking the prize.

Woody Allen likely won’t be present on Sunday to be recognized as a Best Director nominee, which is probably fine and dandy since he too is overmatched in this category. Woody has now been nominated seven times for directing and already has one directing Oscar, he needs more accolades like a hole in the head…which is fine since he likely wouldn’t be getting them in this category this year.

Alexander Payne strikes me as the sort of director who gets closer and closer with each project. This is his second directing nomination (after SIDEWAYS), and he has quickly become a master alchemist where drama meets comedy. A few months ago, he looked like a heavy hitter in this category, but things have since cooled for all things DESCENDANTS. Like Woody, he too might be rewarded on Oscar night, but not as a director.

One would be foolish to discount Martin Scorsese’s chances for HUGO. Scorsese’s love for moviemaking drips from every frame of the film, and his use of 3-D shows that the technology can give films a wonderful added touch in the right hands. For many, it’s a way to honour the roots of filmmaking without honouring THE ARTIST, and a chance to honour a modern master. However, there’s a hitch. The push to finally honour Scorsese with an Oscar landed him the prize for THE DEPARTED – just five years ago. Giving him another one so soon might not be what many voters. Only two modern directors have landed their second Oscar in that short a window or less…and HUGO is not as universally lauded as SAVING PRIVATE RYAN or BORN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. He could very well win, but he’ll need a small touch of luck.

Even money has Michel Hazanavicius taking the prize, and in this writers opinion the prize would be well-deserved. Year-in and year-out there are modern silent films made by experimental directors. They usually play the festival circuit and seldom see the light of day. That Michel’s film was able to rise to the occasion speaks to its craft, and the way it connects with audiences. It may seem like he was playing off a gimmick, but I assure you, it’s truly difficult to make a film like this land in the eyes of viewers. Hazanavicius has given audiences something splendid – and something that could easily have toppled over into full-on homage. His achievement cannot be understated.

Ryan’s Pick… It’ll be close, but Hazanavicius outlasts Scorsese.

I didn’t think I’d be one to say this, but Oscar needs to go back to five Best Picture nominees. They weren’t able to make ten work, and nine just seems ridiculous. What’s worse, the preferential balloting system they use to get the nominees is pure silliness. The academy is going to get things wrong anyway – you could let them nominate twenty and they’ll still miss an obvious choice. At least with five, there’s a clearer consensus.

In the race for top dog there’s a clear “back three”: EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE, WAR HORSE, and MONEYBALL. The films have their supporters, and I liked elements of all three, but a win for any one of them would be a shock to say the least.

After those THE TREE OF LIFE and THE HELP make up grey zone in between the contenders and the pretenders. TREE OF LIFE has a best direction nod to bolster its chances, but as mentioned earlier, it’s wildly divisive. THE HELP is adored by the actors since it’s such a showcase for its talented cast. However, its Best Picture honour wasn’t followed by a Best Direction nomination…and that is not good news. They both come with better odds than the aforementioned three, but not good enough odds to win.

The Best Picture nomination for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS caps off Woody Allen’s best effort in a generation. It’s the rare sort of film that is artistically, critically, and financially successful. However, as I’ve already discussed, if Woody Allen is to be lauded for PARIS tomorrow night, it’ll be as a writer.

The two biggest contenders for the crown come by way of THE DESCENDANTS and HUGO. Both films have trenches of people who adore them, and both have traces of Best Picture winners of old. They both execute on every level, and have a timeless quality to them that befits a Best Picture Winner. However, neither one of them have been able to latch on with a wide base. If one or the other can tally enough second or third place votes, they can pull off a minor upset, but it’s not highly likely.

Not to parrot every other Oscar prognosticator out there, but if you bet against THE ARTIST you’re living on the edge. The film has damned near run the table this awards season, and you know what? Good for it. As much as some might call it pastiche, or fluff, or a gimmick, the truth is that it is more than that. It is a classic story that contains a lot of modern connections to technology and professional pride. It’s a reminder of how wonderful Hollywood used to be, back before we knew every movie star’s every waking movie. And as much as it seems like “typical Oscar bait”, I dare you to watch it with BRAVEHEART…or THE ENGLISH PATIENT…or A BEAUTIFUL MIND…or THE LAST EMPEROR and tell me that it doesn’t seem to fit. It’s had a remarkable run, and Sunday night should cap off its year.

Ryan’s Pick… Barring a mild upset from HUGO or THE DESCENDANTS, THE ARTIST will take Best Picture with pleasure

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Directing and Best Picture races.