Ryan McNeil
This past weekend, my friend Simon Columb started a dialogue – first on Twitter, than on a post all its own – about the Oscar odds of SKYFALL.
I’ll start now by saying what I said then: Nominations in tech categories are likely, perhaps even Best Song (though I don’t think that Adele track does anything special). That said, anything in “The Big Eight” (acting, writing, directing, picture) isn’t happening.
I haven’t seen the film yet, and I understand that it has been received very well by those who have. However, “This is a great film” and “This is an Oscar contender” aren’t the same thing. I don’t know why I feel the need to throw cold water on this today, but allow me to explain.
The thing about The Academy, is that they have particular tastes and habits. Remind yourself that these are people who work in film, so the time they have to sit down and watch film, is limited at best. Are they going to make an effort to see SKYFALL before their nomination ballots are due? Maybe…maybe not. Even if they do, the fact is that so far 2012 has been a pretty good year for movies. We’ve already had THE MASTER, MOONRISE KINGDOM, ARGO, and BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD. Still to come we have contenders like DJANGO UNCHAINED, LES MISERABLES, THE HOBBIT, THE LIFE OF PI, and ZERO DARK THIRTY. So for a 007 film to make its appearance at the big dance, it needs a few of these films to go ignored and needs to hope that another film doesn’t leapfrog it.
Now it was brought to my attention that many precedents where Best Picture are concerned are moot because we are only three years into the larger best picture field (9 – 10 nominees, instead of the traditional 5). True, it’s a little harder to nail down what’s coming, but I would offer this. In the three years since the BP field expanded, they haven’t used those extra slots for fan favorites. Instead, they have used them to honour more of the usual suspects like A SERIOUS MAN, EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE, WAR HORSE, THE BLIND SIDE, 127 HOURS, and MONEYBALL. Remember last year when everyone was clamouring for HARRY POTTER to get a nomination? How about DRIVE.
This is a particular group with particular tastes, and sure mainstream offerings like UP, TOY STORY 3, and DISTRICT 9 made the jump…but they are the exception…not the rule.
My friend also brought up the fact that SKYFALL comes packed with a lot of Oscar prestige – with Oscar winner Sam Mendes directing, Oscar winners Judi Dench and Javier Bardem acting, and nominees Conrad Hall and Ralph Fiennes involved. If prestige were a guarantee of a nomination, then NINE would have represented handily two years ago. Perhaps PUBLIC ENEMIES would have made more noise. Or hell, look at the Oscar nominees populating the Harry Potter franchise. Sure, sometimes assembling a dream team can help your chances…but in the end, your project still has to execute (which I’m told SKYFALL does) and resonate (here’s where we aren’t sure).
An Oscar site that I check in on occasionally puts it best: “The trick is not minding”. Is SKYFALL potentially one of the ten best films of the year? Sure. All things being equal, should it qualify for prestigious Oscars? Perhaps. But we aren’t talking about the reactions of the general populace, or even a body of critics. We are trying to predict the mindset of 6000 people who don’t watch all that many movies with a median age above 60.
The odds that SKYFALL makes the jump are long at best. Don’t say I didn’t warn ya.
One could make this same argument for ‘The Dark Knight Rises’ as well.
I’m thinking I may have to see ‘Skyfall.’ Early reviews are looking very good.
I *would* make this same argument for THE DARK KNIGHT RISES…and AVENGERS too while we’re at it.
I’m not sure I want a Bond film to be an Oscar contender. They are movies, not films, entertainment not art, they are the cinematic equivalent to pulp novels; even the best pulp fiction doesn’t win the Booker Prize! I gave up on the idea of “movies” winning Oscars when The Dark Knight failed to pick up a best picture or director despite being better than all the films that did.
Having said all that, you never know Sam Mendes could pick up a best director nomination, doubtful, but possible.
If it’s *that* good, I’d be alright with it (the same way I’m alright with exceptional animation making the leap). Thing is, I can’t say for sure whether it’s THAT good. (Check back with me in three weeks).
If anything, I think best director is a tougher road for Mendes because it’s a smaller field…and considering there are a lot of usual suspects in contention (PT Anderson, Bigelow, Jackson, Hooper, Lee, and QT) that will be a harder fight.
I agree with that. Very unlikely to happen. Casino Royale was supposed to be the best of the series, and there wasn’t any talk about it at all. The Academy consists of mostly older folks who would rather see The King’s Speech than any Bond movie.
The only way it can garner a best pic nomination is:
– Skyfall has to have great reviews, at least 95% on RT.
– Huge box office hit. I mean it has to be historical box office numbers.
– The other ‘award’ movies that haven’t come out yet (Les Mis, Zero Dark Thirty, The Hobbit)disappoint.
Then maybe the studio could market the 50 years of Bond thing, and make a case for it, even then it’s a long shot.
I mean it’s possible just not probable.
Your third point is the biggest key for me – and the one that is most likely. Something is going to miss the mark (LES MIS has the most question marks for me). If SONY were to put on a really big push, I could see them taking advantage of such a misstep…but they’d have to count on every other FYC team not smelling blood in the water themselves.
I’d argue that The Blind Side was a nod to populist sensibilities, rather than artistic ones, given that it made a lot of money but was generally dismissed by critics. Other than that, though, I’m in agreement with your argument and no matter how well received it is, I don’t expect to see Skyfall nominated for Best Picture.
You might be right…I think if anything it comes down in the middle of the two. In a lot of ways, it reminds me of the sort of film that UED to get nominated all the time (like DEAD POETS SOCIETY, AWAKENINGS, THE GREEN MILE, etc).
On assembling a dream team: How often has the worked for the Leafs? Or what was that NBA disappointment a year or two ago? No reason it should work in the film industry anymore than in sports.
You got it – you need to include people who know how to play off-the-ball (which could well be what Be Wheatly and Naomie Harris are there to do). Still, there’s no such thing as casting your film for Oscar hopes…it comes down to more than that.
It will receive some technical nods, but it has quite a hurdle to clear. There is a lot of competition from Oscar-y films like Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, etc.
I also don’t see The Dark Knight Rises getting that nod either. If The Dark Knight didn’t get it then ‘Rises’ won’t given that it hasn’t received the same accolades.
Yeah, I was hopeful that TDKR could take advantage of a wider field, but I think the mild shoulder-shrug it was met with isn’t going to work in its favour – though it too will be up for a bunch of tech awards.
Better make my stance…
First off, all the ‘evidence’ is detailed on my post on Flickering Myth:
http://www.flickeringmyth.com/2012/10/could-sky-fall-at-2013-academy-awards.html
And secondly, I am well aware that this is the underdog. I’m not claiming that it will steal the show – I’m surely not saying it as a guaratee… but the stars seem to be aligning.
And one small issue I would like to raise is how, considering the vast majority of voters are old, white men … you can’t help but think to yourself … 50 years ago … what do you think they were reading? What do you think they were watching? It was 007.
Any fans of the series may see an opportunity to vote from the heart…
And all this talk of THE HOBBIT … no fu**ing way.
To which I counter that the stars aren’t aligning so much as you and yours are pulling them into alignment.
Those same old white men? 30 years ago, they were also reading TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY…how much did that help it’s chances last year? Admittedly, Oscar is usually behind the curve…but they are never fifty years behind the curve.
As for THE HOBBIT, don’t say I didn’t warn you (and I’m not even a fan)
Its hardly news, 1960 Oscars, how many of these classic and influential films picked up best picture nominations?
North by Northwest
Some Like It Hot
Sleeping Beauty
House on Haunted Hill
The 400 Blows
Rio Bravo
Suddenly, Last Summer
You got it, none, but don’t worry the oh so worthy and Oscar friendly The Nun’s Story and The Diary of Anne Frank were both nominated!