There can only be one. For all the hemming and hawing we’ve done over the last four weeks, it’s time to put the money where the mouth is. While I’m really cool with any of these ten taking the top spot (there really isn’t a weak link in the bunch…no SEABISCUIT if you will), I got a feeling I know how this will all play out. My thoughts on the Best Picture race after the jump

So first a little clarity on the voting process: Lets assume for a moment that we are in a particularly stellar year, and every film lands with around 10% of the vote except for one that eeks out an eleventh percent. Oscar will not give that film the prize. How it works is this: The number to hit is 2,889. Assuming every Academy member turns in their ballot, that would make 5,777 votes up for grabs. Once 50 percent of the electorate is on board with one title, we have a winner.

Voters are asked to rank the films from favorite to least. Let’s say my own ballot went like this:

WINTER’S BONE
INCEPTION
TRUE GRIT
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TOY STORY 3
THE KING’S SPEECH
THE FIGHTER
BLACK SWAN
127 HOURS

Supposing all the votes get counted, and no one film has reached 2889. At this point, the film with the least amount of support is out of contention, and its votes are then redistributed to the number two film listed on each (or discarded entirely if they don’t note a number 2!).

So if WINTER’S BONE was the first film scratched – which it very well could be – my vote would then be counted in with INCEPTION’S lot. Still no 2889, repeat the last step with what is now the lowest film on the board. If INCEPTION was the next one out, my vote now gets given to TRUE GRIT.

In the long run, this means two things…

For starters, no love it/hate it film can take Best Picture under this system. If a film is one that wouldn’t make most people’s top five, it’s done for. Call it the AVATAR effect.

Furthermore, this system indirectly encourages strategic voting. Let’s say that you’re a voter that really has a vendetta against Aronofsky, and you want to make sure that your vote in no way gets counted for him. Even though you might not completely believe it to be true, you could put BLACK SWAN in the tenth spot, leaving you safe in the knowledge that there’s no way your vote can possibly get added to his tally. Sounds sorta cold, but I’ll bet you it happens.

With that in mind, here’s how I think it plays out.

Three films that should be honoured just to have been nominated are 127 HOURS, WINTER’S BONE and THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT. All three got some healthy exposure thanks to their nominations, and in a time when many are questioning the ten nomination system, I point to these three quality films as a reason to keep the system intact. They never would have landed one of the five spots, and yet have all benefitted from the audience uptick.

Another film that will be off the board early is INCEPTION – the lack of a directing nomination for Christopher Nolan pretty much assures that. This is a film that is truly important in the grand scheme of things, since it proves to the studios that a big budgeted original blockbuster is possible in the right hands, and that not every tentpole release needs to be based on a comic book, TV show, or franchise. It maight make some noise in the technical categories, but it’s out of the running here.

After coming on strong around Christmas, THE FIGHTER has waned late in the season. While it is a passable film, it’s a movie that relies heavily on its cast and if it stood any chance here, it would have needed to pick up the SAG award for best ensemble…like INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS last year, or LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE a few years before. It’s fall isn’t the worst thing, since it’s easily the slightest of all nominees in this category.

Remember when I mentioned that for a film to be in contention, it has to be within a voter’s top five? This actually works in favour of TOY STORY 3. Really, who’s going to dislike it that much that they would have it at the bottom of the list? One could even argue that its chances are increased if some voters use it as a way to honour the whole trilogy! When the dust settles, Pixar will be too overmatched…but I’d wager that this film has more of an influence in the final vote than many of us give it credit for.

I really would like to say that BLACK SWAN is in a position to play spoiler, but unfortunately there will be voters just too put off by it’s dark and odd melodrama. Thus while many will like it enough to give it a boost, there will be just as many who despise it and peg it down at 9 or 10, if they even include it on their ballot at all. In a perfect world, the film would have enough momentum to make this race interesting…but I fear that too many voters didn’t fall for it like so many of us did.

Indeed the spoiler this year is TRUE GRIT. It’s an audience favorite, made by Oscar darlings, with enough broad support to distract from the heavyweight fight. Remakes fare surprisingly well in Oscar’s historyand this particular remake seems to have captured people’s imagination. It would need a little bit of help to get there, but in reality it is indeed one of the three titles that could be called out at the end of the night.

Grumpy as it might make some (myself included), THE SOCIAL NETWORK’s chances aren’t good. None of the directing, producing, or acting guilds rallied around it…and many of the people who vote on those awards will be voting in this popularity contest. The reasons behind their apathy are varied:

It’s too emotionally cold.
It has an unlikeable protagonist.
It’s too young.
It feels very of-the-moment.
It’s not a prestige picture.

Add ’em all up, and you make the film ripe to be passed over. Not saying I agree with it, just tellin’ ya how it is.

Which brings us to THE KING’S SPEECH which is the opposite of everything I just said. Nobody will argue that THE KING’S SPEECH is a bad film, even if they like something else better – thus it has that ‘no-less-than-fifth’ angle going for it.

What’s most important is the fact that THE KING’S SPEECH had Harvey Weinstein pushing it through the PR machine that leads up to the awards, and there are few people in Hollywood who know how to play the game better than Harvey. More than anything else, this vote is political…and when when a film’s PR can make it speak loud & clear to the broadest base of voters, then it will be politically successful. THE KING’S SPEECH is the favourite in this category by a healthy magian, and anything less than a touchdown must be seen as a major upset.

Ryan’s Pick… Did I bloody-well stammer? THE KING’S SPEECH takes the prize

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Director race.