Ryan McNeil
Once more into the breach dear friends. With just over twenty-four hours to go, my Oscar picks for best director and best picture can be found after the jump.
Ron Howard lands his third directing nomination for FROST/NIXON. I’ve never been Opie’s biggest fan, but even I must admit that this film was well directed. The nomination will have have to keep him happy until he can roll around in the millions he’ll make off ANGELS & DEMONS.
Two other men that will have to be happy just to be nominated are Gus Van Sant for MILK and Stephen Daldry for THE READER. While MILK was one of the year’s best films, Van Sant’s effort in it has been overlooked time and time again during this awards season. There’s no reason to think tomorrow night will be any different. Stephen Daldry is on a roll of sorts, landing Oscar nominations for every one of his first three features (READER, BILLY ELLIOT, and THE HOURS). While THE READER is a nominee to keep an eye on, directing is one category where the film was badly overmatched.
David Fincher has long been one of my favorite directors, and THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON was a great example that the man is capable of more than just dark, violent thrillers. It’s possible he could win, especially if The Academy has its eye on giving BUTTON the big prize at the end of the night. However, it’s my guess that Finch will still be seated when the envelope is opened at the orchestra begins to play.
That’s because this award is truly Danny Boyle’s to lose. SLUMDOG’s winning streak is a testament to his achievement in directing, and even if it can’t parlay the early support into a directing & picture win, I believe the strangest thing you’ll see is the two categories be split. Like Fincher, Boyle really excelled when given another chance to get away from the edgy/violent projects he usually does. To let him go home empty-handed would be a real shame.
Ryan’s Pick… Boyle holds off Fincher capping an amazing year.
At this point, Best Picture seems like a done deal…but stranger things have happened. Here’s what I can tell you, MILK and FROST/NIXON are completely out of this race.
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON still has a chance of winning this category, especially since it’s the sort of uneven, generation spanning, heart-stirring story Oscar voters like to tap as top dog (think DRIVING MISS DAISY, A BEAUTIFUL MIND, and yes FORREST GUMP).
Likewise, don’t count out THE READER. As mentioned in my bit about the Best Actress race, The Weinsteins have campaigned hard for this film. Though the entire story is badly balanced, the second act entrenches itself firmly is the evils and horrors of The Holocaust. It might well tap a vein for Oscar voters, and could walk away as the dark horse winner.
Through it all, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE is still the one to beat. Debuting strong as the Audience Choice Award winner at The Toronto International Film Festival, and weathering a late smear campaign that smacks of bad PR from another contender, it remains one of 2008’s highest achievements as a film. While it isn’t a complete lock to win this award, any other film taking this prize
Ryan’s Pick… SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, barring some unforeseen READER heroics.