Ryan McNeil
It’s that time of year again – time for the guessing and betting to begin, and for the dissenters to squawk about why such things don’t matter. It is officially awards season.
There have been lots of guesses and theories as the fall has gone along. For those following the race, there have even been two or three lead changes already where predicting the frontrunner is concerned. There are moments where I feel like the eventual top dog, and other moments where I feel like I still have some catch-up to do. This year, things got started a little bit later than in the past, so perhaps we won’t feel as burnt out by the time we get to Oscar Night.
Allow me a moment to outline a few early details…
- The biggest gap in my powers of prognostication rests with ZERO DARK THIRTY. Not only is it a film I am eagerly anticipating, but at the moment it has to be considered a fierce contender after a bunch of accolades being dropped on it last week. Nobody seemed all that sure what to make of Kathryn Bigelow’s take on the Bin Laden raid – now it’s clear to say that the film is in play.
- The franchises have work to do. Throughout the year, I have heard mumblings and grumblings about THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, SKYFALL, and THE AVENGERS making the jump to the big dance and score themselves some serious award consideration. At this stage of the game, none of the three are making waves, and they’d have needed to by now to gain traction going forward. I’m not saying that none of the three will make a splash in the big creative categories – I’m only saying that right this moment, the odds are long.
- After several years sitting on the bench, the studios have pulled off their warm-up suits and jogged back into the game. Sick of watching indies and boutique divisions like Paramount Vantage, Fox Searchlight, Summit, and The Weinstein Company dominate Hollywood’s Biggest Night, big dogs like Warner, Touchstone, Universal, and Sony look to be vying to get back to the grown-ups table.
- Finally, I can’t help but believe that as predictable as awards season has become, we’ll get some sort of surprise on Oscar Nomination morning. I’m reminded of EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE last year, and THE BLIND SIDE two years prior. Anyone want to place bets on what that odd little duck will be this winter?
That’s where we’re at right now. A few influential voting bodies have already weighed in, including the Spirit Awards, the New York Critics, the National Board of Review, and the Los Angeles Critics. A few names pop up with regularity, but it’s still very early to tell much of anything.
Here’s a gathering of what’s gone down to date – Feel free to argue about what’s happened so far in the comment section below.
Spirit Awards
BEST FEATURE
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Bernie
Keep the Lights On
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Julia Loktev, The Loneliest Planet
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
BEST SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks
Martin McDonagh, Seven Psychopaths
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On
BEST FIRST FEATURE
Fill the Void
Gimme the Loot
Safety Not Guaranteed
Sound of My Voice
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Rama Burshtein, Fill the Void
Derek Connolly, Safety Not Guaranteed
Christopher Ford, Robot & Frank
Rashida Jones & Will McCormack, Celeste and Jesse Forever
Jonathan Lisecki, Gayby
JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD – (for features under $500,000)
Breakfast with Curtis
Middle of Nowhere
Mosquita y Mari
Starlet
The Color Wheel
BEST FEMALE LEAD
Linda Cardellini, Return
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
BEST MALE LEAD
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Thure Lindhardt, Keep the Lights On
Matthew McConaughey, Killer Joe
Wendell Pierce, Four
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister’s Sister
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Brit Marling, Sound of My Voice
Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
David Oyelowo, Middle of Nowhere
Michael Péna, End of Watch
Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths
Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Yoni Brook, Valley of Saints
Lol Crawley, Here
Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Roman Vasyanov, End of Watch
Robert Yeoman, Moonrise Kingdom
BEST DOCUMENTARY
How to Survive a Plague
Marina Abramović: The Artist is Present
The Central Park Five
The Invisible War
The Waiting Room
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Amour (France)
Once Upon A Time in Anatolia (Turkey)
Rust And Bone (France/Belgium)
Sister (Switzerland)
War Witch (Democratic Republic of Congo)
PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD
Nobody Walks, Alicia Van Couvering
Prince Avalanche, Derrick Tseng
Stones in the Sun, Mynette Louie
SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD
Pincus, director David Fenster
Gimme the Loot, director Adam Leon
Electrick Children, director Rebecca Thomas
TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD (given to emerging documentary filmmaker)
Leviathan, directors Lucien Castaing-Taylor and Véréna Paravel
The Waiting Room, director Peter Nicks
Only the Young, directors Jason Tippet & Elizabeth Mims
ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD (for ensemble cast)
Starlet
New York Film Critics Awards
Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Animated Film: Frankenweenie
Best Supporting Actor: Matthew McConaughey for Bernie and Magic Mike
Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln
Best Cinematography: Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Non-Fiction Film: The Central Park Five
Best First Feature: How to Survive a Plague
National Board of Review Awards
Best Film: Zero Dark Thirty
Top 10 Films
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Looper
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Promised Land
Silver Linings Playbook
Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Actor: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Supporting Actress: Ann Dowd, Compliance
Original Screenplay: Rian Johnson, Looper
Adapted Screenplay: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Special Achievement in Filmmaking: Ben Affleck, Argo
Breakthrough Actor: Tom Holland, The Impossible
Breakthrough Actress: Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Directorial Debut: Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Foreign Language Film: Amour
Los Angeles Film Critics Awards
Best picture: Amour (Runner-up: The Master)
Best director: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (Runner-up: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty)
Best actor: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (Runner-up: Denis Lavant, Holy Motors)
Best actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook and Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best supporting actor: Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (Runner-up: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained)
Best supporting actress: Amy Adams, The Master (Runner-up: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables and The Dark Knight Rises)
Best animated film: Frankenweenie (Runner-up: It’s Such a Beautiful Day)
Best foreign-language film: Holy Motors (Runner-up: Footnote)
Best documentary: The Gatekeepers (Runner-up: Searching for Sugar Man)
Best screenplay: Chris Terrio, Argo (Runner-up: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook)
Best cinematography: Roger Deakins, Skyfall (Runner-up: Mihai Malaimare Jr., The Master)
Best editing: Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg, Zero Dark Thirty (Runner-up: William Goldenberg, Argo)
Best music score: Dan Romer and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (Runner-up: Jonny Greenwood, The Master)
Douglas Edwards Experimental/Independent Film/Video Award: Leviathan
New Generation Award: Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
It’s a crapshoot at best. While Bigelow and ZDT are taking them now, Up in the Air and Social Network were winning early as well and came home empty-handed.
Agreed – it’s still early. One thing I didn’t mention above is that none of the groups mentioned about have any sort of Oscar say, as opposed to the guilds whose nominations are coming up next.
ZD30 could well suffer the SOCIAL NETWORK/UP IN THE AIR FATE.
The other interesting thing is that through the fall we’ve had at least four “front runners” so far (ARGO, LINCOLN, LES MIS, and now ZD30). At least it’s made for some interesting fodder for the conversation, instead of one film coming out of TIFF and dominating the whole race.
Agreed.
Don’t forget ‘Silver Linings Playbook,’ which, if I’m not mistaken, was a hit at TIFF.
I wonder about Les Miz. The early reviews have not been kind, but it’s sure to make a ton of money and will probably get a bunch of craft nominations (costumes, set design, etc). I originally had it pegged for leading all comers in nominations, and it still might, but now I’m not so sure.
I’ve seen Les Mis. My guess early on is that it could be this year’s DREAMGIRLS – a film that gets a boatload of nominations based on the sort of film it is, but largely leaves empty-handed.
Regardless of whether or not LES MIS takes the big prizes, I think it’s safe to say that it’s guaranteed one major one. The reviews have been hohum (I wonder how many of them disliked the musical before sitting down for the film) but nearly all of them say that Anna Hathaway is stunning! You say LES MIS could be like DREAMGIRLS? DREAMGIRLS had Best Supporting Actress locked down from day 1. Methinks a repeat of circumstances in the books this year.
Otherwise, total crap shoot. As of right now, I’d say the front runners for actress are Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, and, oh I don’t know, Marion Cotillard? Best Actor could be anyone, even though it’s most likely gonna go to Daniel Day Lewis. Best Supporting Actor? Dunno. Maybe it’s finally DiCaprio’s year. That category is always kind to villains.
DAMN IT!! I just want LOOPER and CLOUD ATLAS to get nominated for some stuff!!! 🙁
Here’s the thing with LES MIS: Regardless of what critics and audiences think, it’s the sort of film that Oscar likes. Thus, anything is possible. I do have thoughts on the film itself, but those are about another week away.
Hathaway is quite deserving of a win, and were she to get the gold it wouldn’t surprise me. Her biggest challenge at this stage is Sally Field. I haven’t the foggiest clue how that will play out.
I’m with you on LOOPER and CLOUD ATLAS. I’d especially like a screenplay nomination for the former, and a score nomination for the latter. I’d love for more than that of course, but I’d take those.
Curious. Don’t give anything away, but is your opinion on LES MIS the film at all influenced by LES MIS the musical. I LOVE the musical, so I think I’m already predisposed to like it. All the over the top, sappy, acting through music is already going to appeal to me, and since a lot of movie musicals don’t have that, instead opting for straight dialogue punctuated with stand along songs, I have a feeling it is going to turn off people who aren’t prepared for that in a big way. I’m just wondering if there’s a trend that might develop here.
I’m not sure how much sway one’s familiarity/love for the musical holds.
I’ve seen the musical, and know the story and music reasonably well. I know half a dozen fans of the musical who have seen it, and their reactions vary…so your question is a good one, and my answer is that I don’t know how much water Les Mis fandowm carries.
I’m lousy at Oscar predictions so who knows if it has a realistic shot, but I’d certainly like to see SKYFALL nominated for cinematography and original song.
I’d wager that both nominations are a very real possibility.