Ryan McNeil
More predictions in store today, this time I take aim at the supporting players.
The two categories are almost direct opposites of one another – where supporting actress could feasibly go to any of the five nominees, supporting actor is pretty much a dead lock. My thoughts on each category after the jump.
I’ll start supporting actress with Saoirise Ronan, who’s performance as the meddling and know-it-all Briony in ATONEMENT is indeed deserving of a nomination (though I would have rather given a nomination to Vanessa Redgrave her bit as the same character later in life). Despite the deserving nod, 13-year-olds are usually reduced to also-ran’s when it comes to Oscars. I see your Anna Paquin and raise you a Hayley Joel Osment, and a Keisha Castle-Hughes.
Next we have Ruby Dee for her role as the matriarch in AMERICAN GANGSTER. Now she did just win a SAG Award for this role, but I have a hard time believing that win will translate into Oscar gold. If for no other reason, than for the fact that her five minute role wasn’t all that memorable. A role this small hasn’t been nominated since Judi Dench played Queen Elizabeth in SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE, and Ruby’s performance didn’t have the same resonance as Judi’s.
That brings us to Cate Blanchett, who’s performance as a peak-of-his-fame Bob Dylan was truly memorable, and the best thing about I’M NOT THERE. But. Just three years ago Miss Blanchett won this very category…for a role that called her to impersonate a famous 20th century icon. Are Oscar voters likely to reward her for performing the same trick twice? She deserves the award, but I’m skeptical that she’d get it.
As for Amy Ryan, who comes in as the odds-on favorite having won many critics’ awards for her role as the mother of a kidnapped child in GONE BABY GONE. I might be in the minority with this one, but I fail to see what all the fuss was over. GONE BABY GONE has a handful of memorable characters, but the white-trash mother wasn’t really one of them for me. She could take the prize, but I don’t think she’s the dead-lock that she once seemed to be.
This leaves the door open for Tilda Swinton. MICHAEL CLAYTON is a terrific grown-up movie, and really succeeds based on its stellar casting. Swinton seems to be the best opportunity to reward the movie, and likewise an actress who has been very memorable in just about every role she’s played. Her work in the movie’s opening scenes are amazing – where she seems confident and professional anytime she speaks, but scared shitless whenever she doesn’t. That sort of subtle work deserves to be recognized, and though she’s in tough, I dare say her work may well be Oscar worthy when all the votes are tallied.
The Hatter’s Call… Swinton takes the prize, with a four-way-tie for second place.
The Best Supporting Actor statue was likely sent to the engraver’s shop the day the nominees were announced. Casey Affleck has grown remarkably as an actor this year, and he would easily win the Oscar for Best Successful Upstaging of Brad Pitt in THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD. Hal Holbrook is a touching choice, but still leaves me scratching my head since I would be more apt to honour Emille Hirsch’s role in INTO THE WILD over Holrook. Hal would win the Best Old Guy Still Working award hands-down.
My fiancée mentioned that Phil Seymour-Hoffman seems to get nominated just for showing up these days. I don’t quite think he’s gotten to that point quite yet, but he certainly seems well on his scene-stealing way. He’s the best thing about CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR, which given expectations is an unfortunately dubious honour. For Phil I award the Best Survival of The Mess That Was Mission: Impossible III medal of merit.
Then we have Tom Wilkinson, an actor who to many is “that guy”, but like Seymour-Hoffman, can role out of bed and give you a stunning performance. I actually thought he was the best thing about MICHAEL CLAYTON, and any other year would be calling him to win the category. He’s this year’s winner of the John Kerry Good But Not Good Enough award.
That’s right folks, this Oscar should have just been handed over to Javier Bardem the moment the lights went up on the film’s premiere back at Cannes. I may not go eight for eight with my predictions, but this is the closest thing to a certainty I can count on.
The Hatter’s Call… Bardem by a country mile.