The Stars Are Out Tonight (Oscar Predictions – Best Actress & Best Actor)

Yesterday we discussed the scene-stealers, time to move on to the headliners.

Beginning with the women, one is hard-pressed to think of a more deserving class of nominees. It’s actually hard to believe that four of these five will be going home empty-handed! Further, it’s even harder to believe that one of the biggest non-factors is Meryl Streep. Despite virtually being subtitled “The Most Oscar Movie That Ever Oscared”, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY was D.O.A in this year’s awards season. Know what gang? That’s a real shame. Not only is the film a fantastic watch, but Meryl is gangbusters in it. But that whole “Meryl Needs Another” campaign that got her lauded for THE IRON LADY now has her back on the sidelines for several years. Y’all proud of yourselves?

Another curious case is the chances of Judi Dench. It feels like it’s been a while since she attended Hollywood’s Prom Night, and even longer since she took home hardware. What’s more, PHILOMENA’s fans are legion – enough to get the film fighting above its weight class on Oscar night. Dench is a huge part of that, so integral is her performance as the titular PHILOMENA. Unfortunately though, the movie never caught on beyond its base, and she can rest easy next to Meryl knowing that her night is over.

Considering all of the muckruck going on around GRAVITY and the slew of trophies it seems poised to take, you would think that Sandra Bullock would be more of a frontrunner. She isn’t, and that’s indicative of a few things. For starters, it reminds us that while “one actor carrying the film” can get you nominated (James Franco in 127 HOURS, Tom Hanks in CAST AWAY), it seldom gets you gold. The other thing is that much like Meryl, Bullock was given the “You’ve Done Good Things in Your Career, Here’s An Award” Award too soon. Had Hollywood not lauded her for the vastly inferior BLIND SIDE just five years ago, this would be a different story. But much like Meryl, The Academy got in a big ‘ol hurry and now here we are. I’m not saying she won’t win – I’m just saying the odds are longer.

Amy Adams is an interesting case. While it can sometimes seem like she just got here, she has been putting together a stellar body of work for eight or nine years now. Her body of work has been so stellar in fact, that it feels strange to say she hasn’t been handed an Oscar yet. What’s more, she’s the only woman in the category who hasn’t been handed an Oscar before. When you wrap all of that around her performance in AMERICAN HUSTLE, you have the possibility for a mild upset on Oscar night. It’s not like it hasn’t happened before either – just look at Marion Cotillard (deservedly) being awarded over Julie Christie. For Adams, this would be well-deserved, and laud one of the very best parts of the much-loved film. The question is whether or not Adams can get around the front-runner ahead of her.

That front-runner is Cate Blanchett as the tragically-damaged protagonist in BLUE JASMINE. She plays the sort of car-wreck that we wouldn’t want to talk to at a party, and yet cannot stop talking to. It’s a nuanced and tragic performance, and one that up until very recently would have been a slam-dunk for Best Actress. However, there’s that storm swirling around Woody Allen, and everything related to him is once again rife for controversy…including Cate’s performance. We’ll have to wait and see if Oscar voters are smart enough to divide artist-from-the-art, and also guilt by association.

Ryan’s Pick… If Blanchett cannot weather Woody Allen blowback, Adams gets the gold.

Where the men are concerned, what was once too-close-to-call has suddenly settled into a more-managable two-horse race.

Strange as it is to say this, Christian Bale is the last man in. His work in AMERICAN HUSTLE ranks right up there with his best performances – and it even comes with his customary fluctuation in weight! The man works a combover like nobody’s business and shows that confidence and charisma can make people overlook an awful lot of physical shortcomings. However, he’s just too over-matched this time out, and that’s not even counting some big dogs that didn’t make the cut.

For a shining moment, it looked as though Bruce Dern might be hearing his name called…and it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. He took the Best Actor award at Cannes and toured the circuit with his film like a proud papa. Those virtual lifetime achievement awards Oscar like to give out? Dern’s felt all but engraved – and deservedly so. But then, as I’ve already mentioned this week, NEBRASKA failed to catch on. It got enough love to score a great deal of nominations, but not enough love to parlay those nominations into potential wins. And so Dern, once a potential frontrunner, is now just an also-ran. The man deserved better.

Then there’s Leo.

Brace yourself Tumblr, Leo ain’t winning. His ability to make the jump into this very crowded field is impressive in its own right considering how late THE WOLF OF WALL STREET DROPPED and how deplorable his character is. And as much as the man has already done so many great things with his career, we must remember that he’s only 38 and is not exactly “due”…certainly not in the same way Bruce Dern is “due”. The thing with Leo just comes down to dumb luck to be too far down the depth chart every time he’s nominated, and this year is no exception. Start drafting up your gifs now, this isn’t his time.

In a perfect world Chiwetel Ejiofor would be the man to beat. Late in 12 YEARS A SLAVE, there’s a moment where he looks almost straight to camera with tears in his eyes, and he dares us to look away. That’s the film in a nutshell, and that he’s able to embody it so well is unreal. Through the course of the film, he goes toe-to-toe with a whole host of Hollywood’s best working actors, and he holds his own every time. His win is still possible, but at press time it’s far from a sure bet, and that’s a pity. On paper, 12 YEARS A SLAVE is a hard-watch, but he makes something so terrible, not just bearable but truly riveting. His name being called late on Sunday night would be the cherry on a great year for this fantastically gifted actor.

But then we have McConaughey.

On its own, Matthew McConaughey’s work in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB would have him as a contender. However, what’s fuelling the fire of his chances isn’t just his charming and moving performance as Ron Woodruff. Nay, it’s the whole McConaissance that we have all witnessed through the last two years. Where once we saw this dope-smokin, lazy-drawled, Texas hippy as nothing but fodder for slight comedies and goofy meal tickets, we now see him as a talented and charismatic character actor. In just two years, he has re-invented himself thanks to an amazing run that includes MAGIC MIKE, KILLER JOE, BERNIE, MUD, and ten unforgettable minutes in THE WOLF OF WALL STREET. Such re-invention is rare in Hollywood, and just in case they forget about it, he’s reminding voters every Sunday night at 9pm on HBO.  It plays just as much a part in the voting process as what the man does in the film’s 117 minutes. What McConaughey does on-screen in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB is stellar, and might be award-worthy. What he has done with his career is interstellar, and is most definitely award-worthy.

Ryan’s Pick… McConaughey is awright, awright, awright…

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Acting races.