February Stars (Oscar Predictions – Best Actress & Best Actor)

Moving merrily along, we arrive at the category of Best Actress and Best Actor, and just like yesterday where I looked at Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor, this sliver of Sunday’s festivities brings one coin-toss and one gimme. Let’s begin with the trickier of the two.

I wasn’t terribly smitten with THE IMPOSSIBLE, and the film’s wide lack of Oscar nominations would seem to indicate that The Academy wasn’t either. That doesn’t bode all that well for Naomi Watts’ chances. Granted, a low-nominated film has parlayed itself into Oscar victories before (think LA VIE EN ROSE), it’s a pretty safe bet that Watts’ can just sit back and enjoy the show on Sunday night.

What Quvenzhané Wallis did in BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD really was fascinating. Her performance came with both a bravery and an innocence that was able to carry the entire film with it. However, the question comes down to how much of that came from her chops as an actor, and how much of it came from pointing a camera at a (then) eight-year-old. Still, she is the beating heart of this wonderful film, and one can only hope that if she so wants to that she is able to parlay this boost into a fruitful career.

For a long time, I believed this award would be Jessica Chastain’s to lose. Few stars have burned as brightly as she has over the last eighteen months, and her work in ZERO DARK THIRTY seemed to bring all of that to a natural summit. But then something happened: the film (perhaps unfairly) became a flash point for a debate on torture. As that sideshow played out, the film’s stock fell, helped in no small part by a release date that now feels far too late in the game. Chastain’s effort now feels like something Oscar voters are poised to shrug off right when it should be capturing their imagination. She will win an Oscar some year, but it won’t be this year.

With Chastain’s odds slipping, the nominee who could gain the most from it is Emmanuelle Riva in AMOUR. Like Quvenzhané Wallis, she brings a unique spark to her film. Unlike Wallis, there is no question as to whether what she’s doing comes from somewhere deep down or whether a director turned the camera on and let “Riva-be-Riva” (can I get that on a tee-shirt?). Her performance is nuanced, heartbreaking, and much harder than it looks. She could well be poised to cash-in on the massive support AMOUR has received. Remind yourself too that Actress is the category that often takes a last-minute left turn (Streep over Davis, Cotillard over Christie, Swank over Benning).

Surprises aside, in a field that seems so evenly matched, it seems like Jennifer Lawrence has the slight edge. Besides distancing herself from Chastain in the race for best ingénue of the category, she is in the most well-liked of the five films, and one that is an actor’s showcase to-boot. Like Chastain, Lawrence is another actor whose star has been on the rise for eighteen months, but unlike Chastain she is attached to a film which has gained momentum. Barring a Supporting Actor win for Robert De Niro, no one is more poised to cash in on that swell of support than Lawrence.

Ryan’s Pick…  This is a category where an upset could take place, but count on Katniss to hit the target.

Best Actor this year is a whole lot easier, and has been almost from the word “go”.

We now live in a world where “Oscar Nominee Bradley Cooper” is a reality. I’m curious to see what Cooper does with that gold star, the same way I was curious what Jonah Hill would do this time last year. Only time will tell. Cooper might parlay it into great things, but he’s no Daniel Day-Lewis.

Doesn’t it feel like Hugh Jackman should have been nominated by now? I realize that his filmography answers that question with a definitive “no”, however it feels like the man has way too much talent and charisma to be celebrating only his first nomination. So much so that I’d wager the man could well be a future EGOT. For now though, he’s no Daniel Day-Lewis.

Denzel Washington did something special with FLIGHT, and it’s a shame that more people didn’t notice. Washington has built his career on playing cocksure cops and soldiers. Even when he’s not a cop or a soldier, he’s still almost always cocksure (I’ll spot you JOHN Q and THE PREACHER’S WIFE). In FLIGHT, he risked his brand to play a character far more human and damaged. The results were engaging, and his nomination is a sign of that. Washington could easily add another Oscar or two to his trophy case before his career is done, but Sunday night he’ll be reminded that he’s no Daniel Day-Lewis.

Joaquin Phoenix has done something remarkable this year: He went deeper into the badlands than any actor before him and returned with a hero’s welcome. His spurring of the industry makes Sean Penn and Mo’Nique look like team players, and the fact that his amazing work in THE MASTER was nominated in this category is both a testament to his talent, and a result of how good The Weinsteins are at running an Oscar campaign. He has defied long odds in coming back from the installation art he created with I’M STILL HERE and it’s wonderful to have him back, but he’s no Daniel Day-Lewis.

Let us not sell-short what Daniel Day-Lewis is about to do: The man sits poised to become the only man in the Oscar’s eighty-five year history to win Best Actor three times. Marlon Brando couldn’t do that. Neither could Spencer Tracy or Gary Cooper. There is still time on the clock for Nicholson, Hanks, Penn, and Hoffman…but Daniel Day-Lewis will be the man who was able to say “I did it first”, and is doing it with plenty of road left to add a fourth. His take on Lincoln was both risky and perfect, and was remarkable with how showy it wasn’t. If Day-Lewis is not gracing the audience with another engaging acceptance speech around 11pm, it will be one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history. It’s not impossible, but none of the other four men seems to be coming in with the momentum to pull it off.

Ryan’s Pick…  Daniel Day-Lewis by three touchdowns.

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Acting races.