Only Another Boy and Girl (Oscar Predictions – Best Actress & Actor)

Yesterday was all about the scene-stealers, but today we move our attention to the leads. As usual, there are ten nominees, but like many other categories, there are only one or two people in contention. “Ladies first”, as the saying goes…

Rooney Mara’s nomination is a wonderful thing. Not only does it christen what many hope will be a fruitful career, but it also lauds a performance that many thought would be a tough sell coming after the original foreign version of THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO. Mara is deserving, and will likely land another nomination down the road, but her odds are long.

The actress with only slightly better odds than Rooney Mara is Glenn Close. She has worked for many years to get ALBERT NOBBS made, and the fact that she accomplished that and that it has been this well received is her reward. This is her sixth Oscar nomination, and her fifth was twenty-three years ago. Her achievement was bestowed upon her on nomination morning.

Michelle Williams is another woman with no shot at the podium this time. The second act of her career has been nothing short of luminous. Not only are future nominations a certainty, but so too is an eventual win.

Meryl Streep is the story of the category here, and the story comes with complications. She is solid in THE IRON LADY, but the film is terrible (not that such details have stopped Oscar before). Underscoring her work is this constant thudding drum in Hollywood that the woman is “due”. Someone needs to explain to me how a seventeen-time nominee and two-time winner is “due”. What’s more, maybe she is “due”…but if that’s the case, why not reward her for a deserving part, like ADAPTATION, JULIE & JULIA, or DOUBT. Unfortunately, in each instance, Oscar voters went with a flashier performance. So now she’s “due”, and what’s more, she has The Weinstein Hype Machine behind her. Undeserving as I believe this performance to be, I wouldn’t count her out.

At this stage, I give the slight edge to Viola Davis. Not only is she a talent that everybody with a say loves and respects, but she exemplifies a rare quality: Davis has the uncanny ability to take the very briefest of scenes and turn them into something full of life. For an example of this, look up her scenes in OUT OF SIGHT, DOUBT, or even EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE. For many years now, Davis has embodied sophistication and class, and Sunday could be the moment that is finally widely recognized.

Ryan’s Pick… Meryl waits another year; Viola gets her due.

In an ideal world, Demian Bichir would be a heavy contender for best actor. His performance in A BETTER LIFE is filled with quiet dignity and fortitude. Sadly, even though voters can see the film with ease, I doubt many of them will make the effort. Hopefully this is a coming-out party for the man’s undeniable talent, but his odds of winning are practically nil.

In an ideal world, Gary Oldman would have a shelf-full of Oscar statues rather than only being nominated for the first time. The man owns every scene he’s in, and is often the very best part of some questionable films. Not only is TINKER, TAILOR too dense for voters at large, but it is also likely too subtle. I’m happy to see the pseudo-Sid Vicious get his due, but he will have to wait until his next chance.

In an ideal world, Brad Pitt would be a two-time nominee this year. He was a wonderful element in two very different films, but unsurprisingly only nominated for one. Twenty years back, a year like this would result in multiple nods, but the PR machine has begun putting all the eggs in one basket. After MONEYBALL coming this close to not getting made at all, its success is his reward as the film’s producer.

In an ideal world, George Clooney…actually, I can’t think of anything that would be more ideal for Clooney. He is perennially nominated – for writing, directing, and acting – is handsomely paid, and well-liked by all involved. Lest we forget, he’s also taken home an Oscar just six short years ago. In an ideal world, we’d all have lives like George Clooney’s, and he stands every chance of winning this category.

But in an ideal world, this would only be the start for Jean Dujardin. His charm and candour have blurred the line between him and Georges Valentin almost since the moment the film premiered. In many ways he is like Clooney in his presence and demeanour…only y’know…French. The reason why I say that this only being the start of things is an ideal is because foreign actors don’t have the greatest track record making the leap to Hollywood. For every Antonio Banderas, there are sixteen Audrey Tautou’s, or Roberto Begnini’s, or Catalina Moreno’s. I hope for Dujardin this is the beginning, but I fear it is the end.

Ryan’s Pick… Dujardin holds off Clooney, and wins our hearts at the podium.

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Acting races.